Thursday Morning's Weather Discussion - We May be Spared the Worst that Hurricane Sandy Has to Offer

Well, Sandy is going to end up being one of the most intense low-pressure areas I have ever seen, but thankfully the European model does not intensify her to the insane levels of previous model runs, so we will still be dealing with a historic storm, but most likely not the most significant storm of all time.  The European model continues to bring her on shore near Cape May on Monday afternoon around 1:00 as one of the most intense low-pressure areas I have ever seen.  Luckily, for us though, this will keep the worst of the winds and rain to our south.  We can expect around 3 inches of rain with this path and strong winds of 30-50 mph with the possibility of some gusts to 60-70mph. The highest rainfall totals of 5-12 inches would be kept to our south over Maryland and west to central Pennsylvania if this track holds on future runs.  Therefore, we would be saved from the most damaging winds and rain if we were lucky enough to keep the center of this storm that far away from us.  The models have focused on a landfall as far south as Delaware and as far north as Cape Cod.  The consensus right now takes it inland on Long Island, but I usually watch the European model as it has the highest accuracy ratings.  My point here is that we need to keep a close eye on this, as a 100-mile shift in the track of the center of circulation in either direction would make significant changes in the effects on our area.  Keep in mind thought that with this track, coastal flooding in New Jersey would be quite substantial, as would the wind damage, so residents there should certainly keep a close eye on this and I would expect that evacuations might be necessary along the coast, especially in South and Central Coastal New Jersey.  Stay tuned.