Friday Morning's Weather Discussion - Beautiful Weather Over the Next 10 Days, Excluding Tuesday - Then a Potentially Stormy Thanksgiving Week

Well, I have some good news and some potentially bad news for you this morning.  First, the good news is that we will have some fantastic weather over the next 10 days, excluding Tuesday, when we will have showers and thunderstorms in advance of a cold front.  In fact, temperatures will gradually rise each day until Monday when temperatures should top out in the middle 60’s in most locations.  The bad news is that just past this 10-day period we may very well be looking at horrible weather for Thanksgiving week.   I have been watching for several days now, a strong signal on my computer models for a Nor’easter during the week of Thanksgiving, with the focus being around Tuesday, November 20.  Unfortunately, this signal is only becoming stronger as we are getting closer to the potential event.  It is becoming relatively clear to me at this point that what we are experiencing is a locking-in of the weather pattern to one that favors blocking in the atmosphere in our general area. This causes storms to form along the coast in our area, and then the blocking is not allowing these storms to escape very easily.  This pattern may once again emerge during Thanksgiving week as I am once again seeing a piece of energy drop down from Canada and merge with a piece of energy coming out of the Caribbean. This may very well stir up a potent Nor’easter sometime around Tuesday, November 20 and this may also be a slow moving system, lasting at least two and possibly even three days.  This is all a long way out, and there is still a large chance that I am wrong and this will not happen, or that it will not affect our area.  In addition, even if we do get this storm, it is not yet clear whether it would be rain or snow, but obviously, my concern is that it could very well be snow.  I know this is a big travel week for everyone, so stay tuned.