Wednesday Morning's Weather Discussion

First of all, don't be fooled by the above freezing temperatures outside this morning.  As soon as the precipitation starts, the temperatures will quickly drop to freezing as the dew points are extremely low this morning.  I am going to stick with my earlier forecast that was based upon the latest European model and the short-range American model, and I am going with 2-6 inches throughout Northern New Jersey, with as much as 8 inches possible in the higher elevations of Northern Passaic, Morris, Warren and Sussex counties. The snow will start between 10 am and 12 noon and will end in the early morning hours on Thursday.  I do however have some big concerns.  One is that the short-range American model is producing MUCH more precipitation with this storm and would result in massive snowfall amounts in Northern New Jersey.  This model is also run every 6 hours and therefore has newer data available to it than my favorite European model which is only run once every 12 hours, so in theory the model should be more accurate with the newer data. Also, the European model did look to be too dry in the run yesterday afternoon, and then came in with more precipitation this morning, so maybe it was trending in this direction also, but won't show up until the next run that comes out at 1pm this afternoon.  I am not going to go with this model yet though as I am assuming there is something wrong with it, but I want to urge caution because it is not outside the realm of possibilities.  This storm is just starting to develop and is literally exploding along the Middle Atlantic coast this morning, as can be seen on radar and satellite.  In fact, there was already a 24 mph wind gust at my location this morning.  Below is the snowfall map that this computer model put out this morning, but let me reiterate that I am not predicting this, and at the moment I don't believe it, but anyway, I will paste it below for your amusement.  I doubt it is correct, but regardless, the snow will start between 10 am and 12 noon and will become quite heavy very quickly.  In addition winds will increase to 20-30 mph sustained, with gusts to 50 mph possible. The snow will be coming down hard for several hours this afternoon and evening while the winds are gusting, likely causing near-blizzard conditions for a while in some places.  The majority of the snow will fall between around 1 pm and 7 pm, with only light and intermittent snow and possibly sleet the rest of the night.  Of course, if the short-range American model is right, the heavy snow would continue on and off through much of the night.  Either way, the precipitation should be over by morning.  Again, my official forecast is 2-6 inches throughout Northern New Jersey, with as much as 8 inches possible in the higher elevations of Northern Passaic, Morris, Warren and Sussex counties.  Keep in mind however, that there is still an outside possibility that the short-range American model below is correct, and in that case I would have to increase my snowfall forecast quite a bit, but for now, let's leave it as is.  Stay tuned.