OK I Have to Make a Call And It Is....

I am going out on the limb here and going with the American model run of this morning.  I just checked the ensemble mean of the model, and it is in agreement with the operational version of the model and in fact is even more robust with the precipitation amounts and overall intensity and location of the low-pressure center closer to the coast.  I am thinking the European model is having some issues and that the new model run that came in this morning has some better information available for it, as it should, being that it came out with 6 hour newer data than the European run of last night.  The European model is only run every 12 hours while the American model is run every 6 hours.  So, I am going with the European model of yesterday afternoon and the American model of this morning.  So my forecast is for 3-6 inches of snow for all of Northern New Jersey.