This afternoon and evening's runs of the models
continue to show a rather interesting set-up here along the East Coast of the
United States starting this coming weekend. A storm, that I have been
watching for a week already, will form near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina this
weekend and will move north toward us on Sunday. This is when all the questions start. The European model brings the storm north,
reaching as close to us as central New Jersey, as rain, then the storm decides
to take a right hand turn and go out to sea, only to take a left hand turn on
Tuesday and come back here to us on Wednesday morning as snow, possibly
continuing through Friday. The American
model brings the storm north to our region on Sunday morning, probably as snow,
and keeps it snowing steadily until late on Tuesday night. Then gives us a break on Wednesday and
Thursday, only to bring us the possibility of a little more snow with a much
weaker storm on Friday, then brings us a very powerful Nor’easter the following
Monday after Thanksgiving, as snow, when everyone returns to work again. The scary thing about this Monday after
Thanksgiving storm is that this is the second day in a row the model has shown
nearly this exact same solution, so I am very, very close to pulling the
trigger on this one also. I am now
leaning 55/45 for snow and I am leaning toward the American model solution,
which would start this storm on Sunday morning and end it on Tuesday
night. I am also starting to lean toward
the chance of some snow for the day after Thanksgiving and a chance for another
major Nor’easter for the Monday after Thanksgiving. Wow.
Stay tuned for updates, there is still plenty of time for things to
change in any direction.
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