Saturday Morning's Weather Discussion - Significant Concerns About Wednesday Nor'easter

I am getting very concerned about the Wednesday Nor’easter as it is starting to look stronger and stronger on the models with each run.  In addition, we have a multitude of other problems; one is that many people still don’t have power, two is that there are still trees leaning on power lines all over the place, three is that there are gas shortages everywhere, four is that the coast line has lost many of its protective sand dunes and other barriers.  This storm is starting to look like an intense Nor’easter that could bring winds of 20-30mph with gust up to 50mph, and there is even a chance of accumulating snow throughout Northern New Jersey.  The high winds and potential snow could easily lead to more widespread power outages.  My forecast is based on a combination of the European and American models, as well as my own gut instinct.  It is possible that I could be overdoing the impact of the snow on our area, but both models are currently showing the possibility of at least some snow at the start of the storm.  My gut instinct comes in with the snowfall forecast amounts.  The storm is forecast to be offshore of New Jersey around 50 miles, yet the models are showing the snow change to rain, which I see as less likely as you head west across Northern New Jersey.  Usually a track of a center of low pressure as intense as this one is forecast to be, with a Northeast wind, will not bring in the warm air that the models are currently indicating. In addition, often the storms produce their own cold air, especially when the precipitation is falling hard, as the more intense precipitation helps to drop the cold air down from the upper levels of the atmosphere.  This is a cold-core low pressure area, not a warm-core system like Hurricane Sandy was.  Therefore, I am currently forecasting a little bit more in the way of snow than the models are indicating, expecting that they are slightly undergoing the dynamics of the storm, which may very well produce some of its own cold air by dropping it down from the upper levels of the atmosphere.  I have seen this many times, and often the models do not see it until you get closer in time to the storm.  My snowfall forecast could easily be wrong if the storm is not as intense as currently forecast, or if the center of low pressure moves slightly closer to the coast than currently forecast by the models.  If those things were to occur, there would be either less snow, or possibly even no snow.  On the other hand, if the storm moves further off the coast, the entire storm could be all snow.  My best guess right now is that there will be more snow as you head west across Northern New Jersey, with 1-3 inches in Bergen, Essex, Southern Passaic, Union, and Hudson Counties,  3-6 inches in Northern Passaic and Morris Counties, and 6-12 inches in Warren and Sussex Counties.  Stay tuned for updates, this forecast is still subject to significant changes in snowfall amounts, either higher or lower.