Short Range American Model Gets More Aggressive With the Storm

The short range American model continues to put the pieces with this storm together much better and has now upped the accumulation throughout Northern New Jersey to 3-5 inches in most locations, although the model is indicating a slight chance that eastern portions of northern New Jersey could mix with or change to rain for a time during the afternoon, although I continue to think that is unlikely.  This is a timing issue of three different pieces of energy that may or may not come together.  The models are having a difficult time in determining if or how they will come together, but the first model run with the latest data is saying what I just told you.  Importantly, because it is putting the pieces of energy together a bit more, the precipitation will start a bit earlier and end much later according to this model, starting between 4am and 6am and ending between 5pm and 7pm.  Check back for updates later after the other model runs come in.