Sunday Morning's Weather Discussion - Still a Chance of a Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter

The fantastic weather will peak today and tomorrow as our high temperatures reach the lower to middle 60s.  A cold front will then move through our area on Tuesday around mid-day, bringing showers and thunderstorms with it in the morning on Tuesday, followed by clearing on Tuesday afternoon.  Things will then be nice through Saturday.  Next Sunday clouds may increase in our area as a Nor’easter may start to form off shore of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  MANY questions will still need to be answered with this storm possibility.  There is a chance that this storm will not form at all, or that it may form too far out to sea to affect our area.  There is also a possibility that the storm could affect our area significantly, or that another storm may form next Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day.  If it does affect our area then questions would form as to if it would be rain or snow.  Right now, the American model continues to show a powerful Nor’easter forming and affecting our area from Monday through Wednesday, and then actually brings another storm behind it that could possibly continue the bad weather through Friday.  The European model only develops a weak storm that remains well out to sea and does not affect our area, but then brings another piece of energy in to our area, causing the Nor’easter to form on Wednesday morning and continuing until Thanksgiving morning, bringing us significant snow on Thanksgiving eve and day.  The Canadian model forms the storm, but only brushes us, keeping it mainly just off the coast.  My best guess is aligned with the thoughts from the main National Weather Service Forecast office that this time the American model is correct.  They believe that the European model is mishandling some things in the long term and I agree based upon my analyses.  It is always dangerous to go against the European model, so I do this with the utmost caution, but I have to go with my gut instinct, and I have had the same idea that the American model does now for almost a week, so until or unless the American model changes its mind, I will stick with that thought.  It appears to me that a Nor’easter will start to form off shore of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Sunday in response to energy coming out of the mid-west and some energy coming out of the Caribbean Sea.  I then believe this Nor’easter will strengthen as it moves northward to a point about 150 miles off the coast of New Jersey, bringing snow into our area starting next Monday morning.  I believe the storm will then stall off the coast of New Jersey until Wednesday morning, when it will finally move out of our area, bringing with it an end to the snow early on Wednesday morning.  There is then a decent chance that another weaker storm may move in behind this storm, keeping things unsettled with the possibility of a little more snow on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.  Keep in mind that there is a significant chance that I could be completely wrong with everything in this forecast.  This is just my best guess at this point, given the information that I have to work with.  Check back for updates, and let us see if I need to change my forecast.