Christmas Morning Weather Discussion

Merry Christmas Everyone!  I hope you all woke up to a white Christmas this morning.  I reported just over an inch of snow at my location, officially making this a white Christmas. Now we must turn our eyes to a strong Nor’easter that will be developing tomorrow.  This storm has been trending slightly south and east of our location as we get closer in time to the storm, which is allowing more cold air to stay in place, and allowing for the possibility of more snow accumulation prior to any changeover to rain. It still looks as if the storm will get close enough to us to bring warm air in off the ocean, which would eventually change the snow to rain in all locations throughout Northern New Jersey. The changeover will take place from east to west across Northern New Jersey as the storm center gets close to our location tomorrow night.  The storm should start as snow throughout Northern New Jersey tomorrow afternoon around 2pm and it will likely become heavy at times prior to gradually changing to rain from east to west across Northern New Jersey.  Prior to the changeover, the snow should accumulate to 1-3 inches in Eastern Bergen, Southern Passaic, Essex, Union, and Hudson Counties, 3-6 inches in Western Bergen and Southeastern Morris Counties, 6-9 inches in Northern Passaic, Northwestern Morris, and Warren Counties, and 9-12 inches in Sussex County.  There is still a chance that this storm could push a little further to the south and east and if it were to do so, it would mean that everyone would be snow for the entire storm.  It is actually very close right now to being an all snow event throughout our area.  A 50-mile shift to the south and east with this storm would make this an all snow event throughout Northern New Jersey.  I will watch future model runs very closely and keep you updated.  If this storm were all snow, it would be a 12-18 inch snowstorm.  The rain should then change back to light snow or snow showers by late morning on Thursday, with a dusting to an inch of additional accumulation possible.  After this storm passes by, we must then turn our eyes to another storm that will be developing along the Gulf Coast on Saturday.  This storm will start to track up the Atlantic Coast during the day on Saturday.  This storm may affect our area with another significant snowstorm for Saturday afternoon and night, into Sunday morning.  This time there would be no question that it would be snow throughout our area, but there is a question as to the exact track that the storm will take.  It is possible that the storm could stay far enough out to sea to brush our area with the fringes of the storm as the European model now shows. The European model shows this storm developing into a very powerful Nor’easter as it gets to our latitude, but on the most recent run, it just brushes us and eastern New England with the fringes of the storm.  This storm will need to be watched very closely as it may become very powerful, but we will have to wait to see how close it gets to the coast.  The January 1^st or 2^nd storm still looks to be pushed to the south by the extremely cold air that may be in place in our area at that time, but we will have to watch that closely as well.  Check back for updates.