Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Early Morning European Model Update
The European model is not budging one bit, so neither am I, in fact, I really concerned that this could be a tremendous quick hit type of snowstorm, where there could be EXTREMELY heavy snow falling over a rather short period of time that has the potential to drop up to a foot of snow in only about 6 hours. This would mean near blizzard conditions in many areas if this really occurs as I believe it may in our area tomorrow night. The heavy snow should fall basically from late afternoon through around midnight or so. I think the mistake that is being made by the National Weather Service and many of the other news outlets is that the temperatures will warm up quickly over night, but this should be AFTER the precipitation has lightened up and is basically over. Yes, it will likely end as some drizzle or light rain, but prior to that, I strongly believe the EXTREMELY heavy precipitation rates will keep the atmosphere cold enough for snow in most areas of Northern New Jersey, with the only exclusion being the city areas such as Newark, and possibly north through Eastern sections of Bergen County and Hudson County, close to the Hudson River, where temperatures may be just warm enough to turn the snow to rain after a couple of inches falls. In fact, down by Newark, there may be very little if any snow, but as you head west and go up the hills into areas such as West Orange and Livingston, I can easily picture 6-12 inches. So to try and draw a line of what I am thinking, basically I believe that Eastern Essex County, Hudson County, and Eastern Bergen County will likely get 3-6 inches, except 1-3 inches in the city locations and right along the Hudson River, and Western Essex County, Southern Passaic County, Western Bergen County, Southeastern Morris County and Warren Counties will receive 6-12 inches, and Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties should receive 12-18 inches. I believe this to be a very dangerous situation for anyone considering traveling late this afternoon or tonight and I would caution against being on the roads at that time. To reiterate, I believe the National Weather Service and the news outlets are drastically underestimating the heavy snow potential with the storm, and I can easily picture many areas getting nearly a foot of snow in only about a 6 hour time period late in the day today. I strongly believe they are misreading this situation and that the warm air will not move into our area until after the precipitation is basically finished.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.