Evening Update

Some interesting developments have occurred during the day today and have thrown a big question mark into the entire forecast.  The British, Japanese, Canadian, and US Navy models continue to suggest a 2-6 inch snowfall for Christmas Eve into Christmas morning and a significant snowstorm for our area on Wednesday into Thursday.  Meanwhile the American and European models have gone to 1-2 inches of snow for the Christmas Eve into Christmas morning storm and more of a rain storm for the Wednesday into Thursday storm.  I think what this is telling us is that if the Christmas Eve into Christmas morning storm is weaker, it will result in a possible rainstorm for the Wednesday into Thursday storm, and if it is stronger, it will result in a snowstorm on Wednesday and Thursday.  The interesting thing is that in terms of accuracy, the European model is ranked #1, the British model is ranked #2, the American model is ranked #3, the Japanese model is ranked #4, the Canadian model is ranked #5, and the US Navy model is ranked #6.  So, you have models ranked #1 and #3, against models ranked #2, 4, 5, and 6.  It is a safer bet to go with the American and European models.  They are more likely to be correct, but it is interesting how all the other models maintain the similar solution as the prior runs that showed a more significant snowstorm on Christmas Eve into Christmas morning and therefore a snowstorm on Wednesday into Thursday.  The British and Japanese models are also good models, in fact the British model has a higher accuracy rating than the American model, and they also have the backing of the Canadian and US Navy models, so this is an interesting battle.  Like I said, I would have to go 60/40 for the European and American models here, but we will have to wait till morning to see if any of the models change their solutions.  Check back for updates.