Thursday Morning's Weather Discussion

Well, as far as yesterday goes, I hate being wrong, and I was well, definitely wrong.  I thought the storm would have stayed snow longer than it did.  I knew where the center of high pressure was and I was absolutely correct from very far out as to where the center of low pressure would be, just off the New Jersey coast, even though many meteorologists I talk to said that it would never have been in the location where it ended up.  Therefore, I got the placement of the storm absolutely and completely correct, even though many meteorologists thought it would not happen like that. This was leading them to forecast a high of 35 yesterday afternoon in my location and 37 yesterday in Oakland, NJ, prior to the precipitation starting, which is very different from what I was forecasting and leads to a very different result.  If it were that much above freezing, the precipitation would melt when it hit the roads.  I knew however that it would not likely get above freezing prior to the start of the storm, and it did not, just like I forecast.  This led to the snow immediately sticking to the roads and causing very hazardous road conditions.  In addition, the National Weather Service was forecasting only a half inch of accumulation in many areas that got several inches of snow and ice.  My mistake was that I though the snow would hold on longer than it did based upon my analysis of the situation.  Therefore, I was a bit too cold with the storm and the National Weather Service was a bit too warm with the storm.  We both got it wrong in my opinion.  I hope however, you all agree that my cautioning people to be off the roads by the time the storm started was the right move, and that is what this blog is all about.  I want to keep you all safe, and if I get it wrong, I would rather be wrong and be cautious than be wrong and not have people aware of the danger.  A forecast of 35-37 degrees when the storm started was clearly very wrong by the National Weather Service. This could have led people to be out on the roads that would not have been out on the roads if they thought the high would be 30 prior to the start of the snow, as it actually was and as I thought it would be.  I truly hope I kept a few people safe, and if I did, then I will take the hit on the chin with my stupid 12-18 inch forecast snowfall in Sussex where they got only 4-7 inches and 6-12 inches in areas that only got 1-4 inches.  Now, on to the next storm threat on Saturday, but first we need to get rid of this storm today.  This morning the mixture of rain, sleet, and snow may turn back to all snow prior to ending, with an additional dusting to an inch of accumulation possible prior to ending late this morning or early this afternoon.  Tomorrow will then clear out and give you a breather for a day to get some shopping or work done prior to the next storm.  The next storm will develop due to two different weak areas of low pressure, one dropping down from Canada, and one along the Gulf Coast.  These two systems will start to merge over the Southeastern United States late on Friday night and into Saturday morning.  The merger of these two weak storms will create a stronger storm that will then start to head up the East Coast and in our direction.  As these storms continue to merge, they will eventually produce a powerful Nor’easter.  There are still questions though as to how quickly the storm consolidates and therefore, how close it will come to the coast.  If the storm consolidates a bit quicker, it will come closer to the coast.  If the storm takes a little longer to consolidate, it will remain further out to sea.  Right now, the storm appears that it may pass by our location as it is starting to consolidate into a powerful Nor’easter, bringing us the fringes of a powerful storm.  The coastal areas could possibly get as much or more snow than we even get here in Northern New Jersey, although coastal sections will again have the typical ground temperature issues that could keep the accumulations down, but they will also get more precipitation as they are closer to the storm.  In addition, winds will pick up and there could again be some beach erosion at the shore.  This storm may very well turn into a blizzard for Eastern New England.  Right now, being on the fringes of the storm, it looks like all of Northern New Jersey would get about 3-6 inches of snow, and in fact, so too would most of New Jersey, and coastal sections could actually get even more than that.  The good news is that this time we don’t need to worry about whether it will be rain, sleet, snow, or whatever, in Northern New Jersey, so that headache is removed.  The only question this time in our area is how close the storm gets to us.  If it gets closer to us, the snowfall amounts will increase and if it goes a bit further out to sea, the snowfall amounts will decrease.  The snow from this storm will start between 8:00am and 9:00am on Saturday morning and it will end between 8:00pm and 10:00pm on Saturday night.  After this storm passes by, it will get much colder.  There will then be a chance of some snow showers or flurries on Monday afternoon and night as a weak storm system passes by to our north. Then it will get even colder as we head into the mid week period, with a very cold New Year’s day, and even colder days after New Year’s with lows getting down into the single digits.  Then next Friday we will have to watch for the after New Year’s storm I have been talking about for a long time here on this blog.  That storm is still on the models, but has moved back now to Friday or Saturday.  Although it is possible, it could miss us to the south and east.  It is still too early to tell.