Monday Night into Tuesday Potential

The National Center for Environmental Prediction (the United States organization that runs the weather models for the United States) apparently also sees the potential, and the key word here is potential, for a very significant Nor'easter to develop on Monday night into Tuesday.  So much so that they just ordered special National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reconnaissance aircraft to go out into the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii to gather data from the system that is projected to reach our area at that time, which has the potential to stir up a very strong Nor'easter, depending mainly upon it's actual strength.  Being that data is rather sparse over the Pacific Ocean, and with the rather massive potential if things worked out perfectly, they have ordered these reconnaissance aircraft to go out into that area of low pressure that could create this storm.  Right now the models do not show the storm develop until it is out over the ocean, giving us just a little light snow or flurries on Monday night into Tuesday.  If it turns out that this low pressure area is stronger than the models are projecting, then this storm could turn out to be something very different in our area.  This situation is one of those that is a powder keg waiting to happen, if things work out a certain way.  The data from these flights should be ingested into the models either tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  Below is the information about this situation and a discussion from a meteorologist that I hold in high regard.

Folks, NCEP:  "......THERE IS REASONABLE EVIDENCE OF A COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ATOP THIS SLOPED ARCTICFRONT...AND BENEATH A COMPLEX 250MB JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ENOUGH SUPPORT/EVIDENCE DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS TO REQUEST A SERIES OF NOAA G4 WINTER RECON FLIGHTS TO SAMPLE THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA..."

Not sure when that sound data would make it into the grid, but clearly there are top minds onto this issue/volatility in the domain for the time frame in question, so it's definitely interesting.

I tell you what, the Euro has zippo wiggle room - if that deep layer gets even a little bit more amped when that wavy turns the corner in the OV, that would be a NJ Model bomb *( and I mean actual deepening rates ).  Very very close there.  

One can see why G4 flights are being requested... It has been a long long time since this type of thickness packing has been modeled, and situated so close to the Gulf Stream..

You can't fiddle around with that - that's a like a loaded gun.   If run a 110kt 500mb wind stream over the top of that intense of a frontal slope than the models would quite likely be underdone with sfc result.

Oh, certainly it's more likely a non-event, but the volatility and profile of potential is just off the charts.   NCEP seems to concur enough to send up the G4's
 

This is the plan of the day ... no idea for sure when it gets ingested into the model assimilation. I imagine by 12z tomorrow there's no doubt it's all in there.

Definitely complex situation, so hopefully these drops are useful. Will be interesting to see any notable shifts/trends tomorrow!

the trick there is to have the S/W be more intense to compensate - hence the G4 missions.

Quote

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171731
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EST THU 17 JANUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JANUARY 2013
         WSPOD NUMBER.....12-048

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49--
.      A. P56/ DROP 11(44.3N 151.0W)/ 19/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 02WSC TRACK56
       C. 18/1930Z
       D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 19/0600Z

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$
JWP