Afternoon American Model Update

The afternoon run of the American model continues to show a very close call for the Wednesday night storm.  In fact, the operational run now brings Northern New Jersey a dusting to an inch of snow and central New Jersey about 2 inches of snow, possibly into New York City, but as usual the city itself will have slightly warmer temperatures at the surface so accumulation would be more difficult to achieve there.  I must say however that the American model brings significant precipitation now as close to our area as coastal New Jersey, so any further northward shift would bring a significant snowstorm to Northern New Jersey and New York City on Wednesday night.  Of greater concern though is that the ensemble mean of the American model is further north than the operational run of the model, indeed bringing a significant snowstorm to Northern New Jersey and New York City on Wednesday night.  I must remind you all though that the European model still does not show this storm coming anywhere near this far north, so we will have to see what happens.  The European model will be out through that time by around 1:15. I will post an update shortly thereafter.