Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Historic Blizzard Possible on Friday into Saturday Morning

A historic blizzard is possible on Friday into Saturday morning.  The control run of the European model just came in and does, just as I had feared.  It phases this storm 6 hours earlier, just as I have been saying, causing ALL of NJ, NYC, Long Island, and Connecticut to be in the heaviest area of snow.  If, and I repeat if this is correct, it it not a guarantee, but it is a very real possibility, it would mean we would all see at least 2 feet of snow.  I don't want to alarm anyone, it is always possible it is wrong, but honestly, I am leaning toward it at the moment.  The main operational run of the European model has been trending toward the control run of the model for the past two runs now, phasing the two storms sooner.  I will however post below what I said earlier and stick with that as my official forecast for now, but please keep in mind, this forecast can change for the better or worse very easily. 

The European model continues to phase these two storms quicker, now bringing blizzard conditions to much of our area for late in the day on Friday into early Saturday.  There may be a little snow even early in the morning on Friday, but the main effects from the storm look to start around 11am on Friday morning with the heaviest snow occuring on Friday evening and night and into early Saturday morning before ending between 7am and 10am on Saturday morning from west to east. Total accumulations right now appear to be 12-18 inches throughout Northern and Central New Jersey, with the lowest accumulations in Western sections and the highest accumulations in eastern sections. From New York City eastward to Central Long Island, accumulations should be 18-24 inches, and from central Long Island to Boston, accumulations should be 24-30 inches.  There is a possibility that the storm could start as rain, especially in eastern and southern sections, but it will change to snow everywhere by evening and this was taken into account in my snowfall totals listed above.

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