A historic blizzard is possible on Friday into Saturday morning. The control run of the European model just came in and does, just as I had feared. It phases this storm 6 hours earlier, just as I have been saying, causing ALL of NJ, NYC, Long Island, and Connecticut to be in the heaviest area of snow. If, and I repeat if this is correct, it it not a guarantee, but it is a very real possibility, it would mean we would all see at least 2 feet of snow. I don't want to alarm anyone, it is always possible it is wrong, but honestly, I am leaning toward it at the moment. The main operational run of the European model has been trending toward the control run of the model for the past two runs now, phasing the two storms sooner. I will however post below what I said earlier and stick with that as my official forecast for now, but please keep in mind, this forecast can change for the better or worse very easily.
The European model continues to phase these two storms quicker, now
bringing blizzard conditions to much of our area for late in the day on
Friday into early Saturday. There may be a little snow even early in
the morning on Friday, but the main effects from the storm look to start
around 11am on Friday morning with the heaviest snow occuring on Friday
evening and night and into early Saturday morning before ending between
7am and 10am on Saturday morning from west to east. Total accumulations
right now appear to be 12-18 inches throughout Northern and Central New
Jersey, with the lowest accumulations in Western sections and the
highest accumulations in eastern sections. From New York City eastward
to Central Long Island, accumulations should be 18-24 inches, and from
central Long Island to Boston, accumulations should be 24-30 inches.
There is a possibility that the storm could start as rain, especially in
eastern and southern sections, but it will change to snow everywhere by
evening and this was taken into account in my snowfall totals listed
above.
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