Saturday, February 9, 2013
Ensemble Mean of the Medium-Range American Model
The ensemble mean of the American model it actually more impressive with the Wednesday night storm than the operational run, which is a huge red flag. The ensemble mean of the model that just came in brings us more like 6 inches of snow as it develops the storm into a significant Nor'easter, not a major one, but a significant one. I am starting to get a bit concerned about this storm now, as the British model also looks like it has the storm for us as well, but the British model does not produce precipitation graphics out past 3 days, and only comes out in 24 hour increments so you have to do some extrapolation with the location of the storm and precipitation amounts. Let's see what the European model has to say. The European model will be out to this time by around 1:15. I will post an update shortly thereafter. If the European model picks up on this as well, then it is game on. If not, then I will still continue to hedge about the potential. The ensemble mean also shows the potential storm for next weekend, placing the timing as Saturday. Let's see.
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