February 14, 2013, Evening Weather Discussion - Nearly Impossible Forecast - Very Interesting Situation

This forecast, if you can call it that, is nearly impossible.  It is more like, a discussion of the possibilities this evening.  Trying to make a forecast tonight is well, a joke.  Anyone telling you that they can forecast what is going to happen this weekend right now is not being honest.  They are just throwing stuff out there and hoping to get lucky.  I will not do that.  I will tell you the possibilities that are currently on the table and give you my thoughts mixed in.   This evening any possible solution is on the table, and I mean, literally any possible solution, no joke.  The American model shifted the storm off shore on the evening run.  However, the evening run does not have important weather balloon data in it.  So yes, it is possible this storm will remain out to sea.  However, what about the missing balloon data?  What effect does that have on the models with such a volatile situation at hand?  There are literally pieces of upper level energy all over the place that may interact with the polar vortex somewhere nearby this weekend.  I see model solutions right now ranging from nothing at all this weekend to a blizzard with more than 2 feet of snow in our area this weekend.  Is the model with the overall highest accuracy ratings (the European model) correct with its solution of 2 inches for us on Saturday?  The European model is my favorite model in most cases, but right now, it handled the storm last night horribly, being the last model of all the models to figure out that the storm was going to come north of North Carolina.  Prior to only a couple of days ago it was saying that the storm that hit us last night was going go off shore of North Carolina and not even come anywhere near our area.  Because of this, and my experiences with this model handling situations with the northern stream dominated storms such as the one this coming weekend, I do not trust the European model.  The American model also has not done very well recently and constantly has all kinds of issues.  I thought it was figuring this storm out on the last run this afternoon, then it shifted off shore, but like I said, important balloon data is not in the evening run, so I don’t fully trust the latest American model either, especially in such a volatile situation such as this when it does not have the important balloon data.  This situation reminds me very much of the December 26, 2010 storm, when the models had the storm in the long range, then lost it, then the American model brought it back 36 hours before it happened, and then European model brought it back 24 hours before it hit.  My gut instinct is that the British model is the one that is most likely to be correct here, if I had to take a guess.  It has been consistent with its solutions for a few days now and has not wavered.  That does not mean that it will end up being correct, but it makes me think that it is the most likely one to be correct.  The British model showed our area of Northern New Jersey into New York City getting roughly 6-10 inches of snow on Saturday morning into Sunday morning, with areas from Eastern Long Island to Maine getting at least that much snow, with blizzard conditions as well.  My gut is telling me that the British model is the most likely to be correct, but honestly, I am just guessing at this point.  Therefore, to sum this up, I truly do not know what will happen on Saturday and every possible solution is on the table, from absolutely nothing happening and the storm remaining far out to sea, to a very significant Nor’easter affecting our entire area with blizzard conditions.  Well, at least it is interesting.  I wish I could do better than that, but at least I am being honest and you are getting an idea of the possibilities.  This is a very volatile situation where truly anything is possible.  Check back for updates.