Wednesday, February 20th, 2013, Morning Weather Discussion

We have a very active and quite interesting weather pattern setting up over the next 2 weeks.  Today and tomorrow we will have a chance of some Lake Effect snow showers or flurries.  Then the first storm of interest will enter our area by Friday night, with the possibility of a little light snow starting on Friday afternoon or evening and continuing through the night.  This storm will likely strengthen into a Nor’easter off the New Jersey Coast and then head east, south of Long Island and New England, while becoming quite strong.  Our area remains very much on the borderline between rain and snow and this storm could go either way, but I will take my best shot at it right now, based upon the latest model guidance.  At this moment in time, it looks like the light snow from Friday night will change to rain on Saturday morning and continue into the night when it will change back to snow before ending on Sunday morning.  This situation needs to be watched closely because a slight change in track could bring us a significant snowstorm.  The next storm of concern will enter our area on Tuesday, likely bringing some snow by Tuesday afternoon, which may turn to sleet in the afternoon and continue into the night, prior to changing to rain and ending on Wednesday morning.  This storm could also be quite significant and bring some difficult driving conditions on Tuesday.  Then we will have to watch for my early March major Nor’easter that I have been talking about for many days now.  The operational run of the European model shows this storm becoming a monster as it develops in the Gulf of Mexico next Thursday and moves off the Southeast Coast of the United States, before finally making its way here by next weekend, keeping the main effects from the storm off shore.  However, the Control run of the European model shows the storm taking a track directly up the East Coast of the United States next Thursday night and Friday, causing snow to start here by Thursday night.  The Control run of the European model then stalls this storm out well off shore of New Jersey, causing snow to continue falling through Friday and Saturday, before finally starting to taper off to snow showers on Sunday.  The American model this morning also shows a potential strong Nor’easter for next Thursday night and Friday, but not as intense as the European model shows.  The European model however is much more likely to have this storm correct, as it tends to do better with southern jet stream storms.   Of course, this potential storm is a very long way away and it may not develop at all, and even if it does develop it could still go west of us and become a rain storm, or it could go east of us and miss us completely out to sea.  However, I have been talking about this one for some time, so obviously I think we need to keep an eye on it, as I see it as being a real threat toward the end of next week.