I though you might find this interesting. I posted this right here on this blog 16 days ago about the storm that is indeed going to be hitting our area tomorrow. Again, I posted this 16 days ago. Of course, you can understand that out that far in time, it is difficult to nail down an exact day, so as you can see I was off by a day or two, but how about this, and I even got really detailed about the type of storm, and the fact that it would be slow moving. This storm will indeed be quite intense, but will likely go to our south and east for the most part, but it will affect our area for three days most likely, just like I said. Below is the post I made 16 days ago, and then another that I made the next day, where I was a bit further off on the date, but I had the right idea.
Well, we just missed out on big
Nor’easter that moved just to our east.
Last night it was interesting to watch as the band of heavy snow hugged
the New Jersey Coast, but remained literally 5 miles off shore, while cutting
across Long Island, giving eastern Long Island several inches of snow. Boston is still reporting heavy snow as I am
writing this. Anyway, looking forward,
we will see some rain in the afternoon on Tuesday as a cold front approaches. Then a weak storm system will approach for
Friday, bringing a chance of some light snow.
It had originally looked as if this storm might be more significant, but
now it looks as if it will break into two separate pieces, with the second
piece possibly approaching late on Saturday.
This second piece would have the potential to be more significant as it
will have more moisture to work with, coming from the southern jet stream. There is still a chance this storm will miss
us to the south. If it does come north
to our area, it could fall as rain or snow, or rain and snow depending on the
exact track that it takes. Right now,
the European model brings this storm far enough north to affect our area
significantly, starting as rain on Saturday afternoon, and changing to
significant snow at night, but we will have to wait and see. After this storm, another storm will approach
for next Monday night into Tuesday morning.
This storm could be quite significant but could fall as either rain or
snow depending on the track that the storm takes. Then next Friday there will be a chance of a
little light snow as a weak storm approaches our area. Then next Saturday, clouds may increase as a
potentially very significant storm may approach our area. I have
been watching for a couple of days now for the potential of a very significant
storm somewhere along the East Coast for period between Sunday March 3rd
and Tuesday March 5th. There
are indications that the southern and northern jet streams could merge
somewhere along the East Coast during that time period, and could produce a
very significant storm. Keep in mind
that early March can sometimes produce very significant storms along the East
Coast as temperatures start to warm in the south as we head into Spring, but at
the same time there is still plenty of cold air to our north. If that cold air to our north dives south and
meets up with the warm air, it can produce very strong storms, and if that
combines with the moisture of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean, then
the storm would have a lot of moisture to work with as well. In addition, storms in March tend to move
much slower than they do during the middle of winter, as the upper level winds
tend to start slowing down a bit, so these types of storms can often be slower
moving as well. Right now, this is all a
very long way out and may not happen at all, but let us keep an eye on this
potential just in case. Again, this
would be for the period between Sunday March 3rd and Tuesday March 5th
Posted by The Edge at 9:54 AM
We will see a very active next
couple of weeks of weather, as winter will apparently go out with a bang. The main question is whether each of these
individual storms will be rain or snow.
As usual, we are going to be on the dividing line between rain and snow
here in Northern New Jersey. The way it
looks right now, each one of these storms could go either way, that is, after
the rain tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow
morning temperatures will warm, as warm air surges ahead of a cold front that
will pass through our area tomorrow afternoon.
As this warm air pushes in, it will bring a little rain with it, and
then temperatures will once again drop after the front passes. The first storm of concern will be
approaching on Friday. This storm will
apparently break into two pieces, the first piece of which will have very
little moisture to work with and will just bring a chance of a little light
snow on Friday. Then on Saturday the
second piece of the storm will start to develop in the Southeastern United
States. This storm will then move
northeast and toward us. There remain
questions as to how far north up the coast this storm will make it. It might make it far enough North to bring us
some significant precipitation on Saturday afternoon and night, but there is
also a chance this storm will stay south of us and miss us completely. The exact track that this storm takes will
determine how much and what type of precipitation we receive, if any. Check back for updates. The next storm of concern will then approach
for next Tuesday. This storm has the
possibility of being quite significant, but again, there are many questions yet
to be answered as to how this storm will develop and the track that it will
take, which will determine how much and what type of precipitation we
receive. After this storm passes, there
are just a million questions as to what happens next. There
appears to be a high likelihood of the northern and southern jet streams
phasing somewhere along the East Coast of the United States sometime between
Thursday, February 28th and Sunday March 3rd. If, and how, these streams phase will
determine whether a big storm develops somewhere along the East Coast toward
the end of next week. If a storm does
develop around this time, it may be a very slow moving storm as well. At this moment in time, it does appear that
the storm would have a lot of cold air to work with. Therefore, there is the potential that
somewhere along the East Coast there could be a very significant, long duration
snowstorm, and it could even merge with the storm from next Tuesday, hence my
forecast of a chance of rain or snow from Next Tuesday through next
Sunday. Of course, this is a very long
way out into the future and there is no guarantee this storm will happen at
all, and even it does, we don’t know if it will affect our area, or with what
type of precipitation if it does, so check back for updates. This is a very active weather pattern, and
there is certainly a lot that can happen over the next two weeks.
Posted by The Edge at 9:49 AM
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