Saturday March 2, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

We have to keep a very close eye on the Nor’easter that will be developing near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Tuesday night.  This storm will become quite strong and will likely become a blizzard for someone.  At this very moment in time, it looks like central Virginia would be the big winner with 2 feet of snow.  However, the pieces of energy creating this storm will only start coming on shore in North American today and tomorrow.  There is still a very strong chance that the models will change once the pieces make it on shore and more information is available for the computer models.  I will continue to keep a close eye on this situation and provide updates throughout the weekend.  The ensemble means of all the models are currently quite a bit north of the operational runs of the models, and this is often a warning sign that the storm may come further north than the operational runs are currently showing.  For instance, right now the ensemble mean of the American model brings us about 3 inches of snow, and the ensemble mean of the Canadian model brings us about 8 inches of snow.  Check back for continuous updates this weekend.