I still can’t get over how much snow Northeastern New Jersey
got yesterday. It was truly
amazing. I guess that I did say many
days ago that we would get somewhere between nothing and a blizzard, and this
is exactly what we got, nothing the first night, and then nearly a blizzard the
second night, and I outlined this possibility of a slow moving and intense
multi-day storm 19 days before it happened.
You are never going to get these things exactly correct, especially on
such a minute scale, such as my forecast end time of around noon. The snow ended at 12:30 at my location but went
on until around 3:00-3:30 in Northeastern New Jersey as that band just would
not budge, and western sections of New Jersey only received as little as 3.5 inches
while other locations received almost a foot.
Sure, I wish I could have guessed the snowfall totals a bit better, but honestly
at my location I was saying 2-4 inches a few days in advance while the major
networks were saying nothing and we got 5 inches here, and the day when they
were saying 6-12 inches and I was saying an inch, we got nothing. So, overall I definitely got the idea right,
I just missed on the very small-scale feature of that band setting up over
Northeastern New Jersey and then simply not moving and more important, the
intensity of that band, which no model was showing except the model that had
already completely busted the night before.
Oh well, no one is perfect. Anyway,
moving forward, it will be beautiful through Monday with highs reaching the 50’s,
then on Tuesday a cold front will move through our area, bringing with it some
rain on Tuesday, and colder air behind it for the rest of the week. Wednesday there will be a chance of rain or
snow showers and a chance of snow showers on Thursday as showers are likely to
develop off the Great Lakes. Then on
Friday we will have a chance of snow as a weak storm system approaches from the
west. This system has the potential to
give us a dusting to an inch or two of snow during the day on Friday and
possibly into Friday evening. Then
another weak storm system will approach on Saturday night, again bringing a
chance of snow for Saturday night and Sunday.
Then, yet another storm system will approach for the following Tuesday
night through Friday. This is the
potential storm system that I have been talking about for a few days now. This storm system could be a repeat of what
we just experienced, as it could form into a quite intense and slow moving Nor’easter
and there should be plenty of cold air to work with, so someone along the East
Coast is likely to get yet another major snowstorm.
Mark, Good work on a tough storm!!
ReplyDeleteJim,
ReplyDeleteThank you. I appreciate that. I wish I could have nailed it perfectly and honestly, this one was really difficult. The way that band set up over you guys there and did not let up was really something amazing. The European model did not indicate anything even remotely like that as far as precipitation amounts and even the short-range American model that I say nailed it, had backed down a bit at the last minute and did not have those amounts, so well, what can I say?
Yo Edge- No Meteorologist get's them all perfectly right. That's how mother nature puts a wrench into all the science. The evolution of these storms over a week is the fun part. You never know what they are going to do. We all love following you for what you do. Keep up the good work!
ReplyDeleteThanks Mike. That storm was fun, but difficult to try and predict.
ReplyDelete