Sunday, September 22nd, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

Happy first day of autumn!  We will see some truly wonderful weather over the next two weeks, with the only wrinkle being next Sunday night as the next cold front passes through our area.  Then we will have to keep a close eye on a possible situation for the following weekend about two weeks from now.  In between though, we will see nearly perfect weather, as an area of low pressure will develop over the southeastern United States but will remain separate from an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes.  This will allow the area of low pressure over the southeastern United States to escape off the coast and head out to sea, rather than coming up the coast and merging with the area of low pressure over the Great Lakes and producing a major Nor’easter as some of the models showed last week.  So, we should see some really nice weather over the next nearly two weeks.  However, we do need to keep a close eye on a possible situation for the following weekend, about two weeks from now, as there is the potential for a significant storm to develop along the East Coast.  This potential is still a long way out so anything is possible and there is still the possibility that it won’t happen at all, much as the potential storm for this coming Tuesday that we now know won’t happen.  However, all three of the major computer models that are available, that go out that far, bring the possibility of a significant Nor’easter along the East Coast around two weeks from now.   It does not at this time appear anything to be concerned about other than some rain and cooler weather, but interestingly, and the reason I bring it to your attention is that there are signs that this storm could be the first one of the early season to bring some snow flurries and snow showers to parts of the Great Lakes region and possibly into the Northeastern United States.  Of course, as we head toward the end of October many of us, myself included will be nervously watching the weather again as BOTH of the last two years have brought us very damaging storms on October 27^th specifically.  In addition, during that same week back in 1981 there was a tornado that nearly hit my home here in New Jersey that was one of strongest tornadoes to ever hit the State of New Jersey and is what started my interested in weather.  So, believe me, I will keep a close eye on things.  What makes me a bit nervous is how the latest run of the American model wants to bring a tropical system out of the Caribbean Sea and then merge it with a storm dropping down from Canada again for about two weeks from now.  This is exactly what caused the two October 27^th storms the past two years, so anything that even remotely looks similar makes me nervous.   Of course I will reiterate that I see nothing similar on the models at this time, but I will keep a close eye on it.  I also want to remind everyone that the chances of ever seeing anything similar to Sandy again are extremely remote, honestly, nearly impossible, BUT a storm similar to the one the prior year that brings early season flooding rains and snow is definitely a possibility if the pattern sets up correctly, and my fear as I stated last week is that the pattern does to me appear favorable for a late October snowstorm in the Northeast somewhere.  Rest assured that I will keep an eye on things for you and let you know before anyone else.  Stay tuned and tell all of your friends about this blog as well.  Thank you.