Tuesday, October 15th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

This is mainly a copy and paste of my entire post from last night with only some minor modifications in places as the models have remained very similar overnight.  Well, I have only been harping about this for at least a week already, but it is now appearing evident to me that a Nor'easter is going to develop next Wednesday and Thursday.  It had looked on the last few runs like it might be more toward Friday, but I am now convinced that the Nor'easter will develop somewhere near the Mid-Atlantic Coast next Wednesday and Thursday.  This storm will likely bring us some rain next Wednesday into Thursday, but more importantly for areas further to the north up in New England it will be a very significant early season snowfall.  Even more important for our area, it will also bring winter-like temperatures to our area starting next Thursday night with the rain showers possibly changing to snow showers in our area next Thursday night and continuing with the possibility of scattered snow showers through next Friday and Saturday.  This will then be followed by an even more potentially significant storm to affect our area the following Monday, October 28th.  I am quite concerned about both of these storms, especially the second one though as the first storm next Wednesday and Thursday will strengthen into a monster as it heads up into Southeastern Canada and will then cause all of the cold air over Canada to drop well south down into the United States and our area.  This will pave the way for a potentially very significant storm to affect our area on Monday, October 28th.  It is too early to tell exactly how this will all play out and early indications are that the storm may again develop near the Middle Atlantic Coast, but it is just WAY too early to really be sure of anything in this time frame.  However, I am really thinking we now have two potentially significant storms to watch for next Wednesday/Thursday and then an even more potentially interesting storm the following Monday, October 28th (this one needs to be watched very closely).  Before all this though, we will have a chance of a shower tomorrow and Thursday, especially Thursday night, followed by the slight chance of a shower on Sunday.  Then it may get quite cold for next Monday and Tuesday mornings when we may have our first frost or freeze in some areas as the temperatures may drop to the low to mid 30's by Tuesday morning in the coldest locations of Northwest New Jersey, although the models are in quite a bit of disagreement as to exactly how cold it will get these days, so check back for updates.  There is a possibility that it won’t get quite that cold until later in the week. Then we need to watch for the potentially game changing Nor'easter to form near the Middle Atlantic Coast next Wednesday/Thursday, bringing us some rain, and Northern New England some heavy snow, then very possibly bringing us some snow showers starting next Thursday night, Friday, and Saturday, off the Great Lakes and keeping us downright cold for next weekend leading up to a potentially very interesting storm to approach our area for Monday, October 28th.  All of this is a result of the massive hurricane about to hit Japan.  If you get a chance, check out the satellite views of the Western Pacific.  Click here to view the latest satellite image of this Typhoon about to hit Japan.  Click here to view the looping image of the Typhoon about to hit Japan.  Notice that there is also a Typhoon hitting Southeast Asia right now (to the left on the screen).  This Typhoon hitting Japan is amplifying the entire pattern and the remnants of it are what may end up bringing us a significant storm of our own on October 28th.  Stay tuned.