Friday, November 8th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

Well, I am already seeing some signs on the evening model run that this storm may be on its way back on the models.  I am also starting to see some clear signs that some of the major New York forecasters are stealing some of my thoughts, so I am going to cut back on some of the secrets that I use in my forecasting, and be a bit more general, or at least I will try.  You know I want to share everything with you all, but maybe I should leave all the detail out and be more general?  I think I am making life too easy on some people who actually get paid to do this for a living.  I will think about it.  Anyway, I had predicted prior to the last model run that I had an inkling that that the models might lose the storm on that model run.  I am already seeing some signs in some things that I look for on each model run that it may already be slowly coming back.  There are no guarantees here at all but as I stated the models losing these storms in this range is quite common, in fact in my experience it happens more often than not, only to come back eventually.  Sometimes it comes right back on the next model run and sometimes it takes a few days.  Of course sometimes it does not come back at all, but as you who already follow my blog know, when I am all over something like this in this range I am obviously seeing something that interests me greatly.  It is no secret at this point that I am all over this one so some people are apparently watching closely.  Anyway, no guarantees that this one will happen at all, but I am still leaning towards it.  Many things could still go wrong here though and it may not come back as a blizzard if it does, but it could.  If the storm stays too far out to sea it will miss us.  If it develops later in the period it could allow the air to modify and be rain.  However it could come back in the same form as this morning.  Honestly, I would not be surprised if it pops back up on the next model run or the one after that, nor would I be surprised if it did not come back at all.  I am not THAT certain yet that it will hit us, but I am definitely leaning about 60/40 in that direction even though NO model currently shows this.  If forecasting weather were easy everyone could just look at a model and tell you what will happen.  It is not that easy.  I have been doing this for many years and take it very seriously.  I am far from perfect though and we will just have to see what Mother Nature has in store for us.  Check back tomorrow morning for the next update. Have a nice evening.