Saturday, November 9th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, I am now leaning against the big snowstorm for Wednesday night and Thursday.  I now give the big snowstorm solution about a 30% chance of happening.  There are still some signs there that it could happen, however most things are currently leaning against it.  It now appears that the arctic front that will likely bring us some snow showers as it moves through on Tuesday morning will be so strong that it may push the storm further out into the ocean and prevent it from turning more north.  I am not yet certain of this at all, but the models this morning are indicating that to be much more likely.  There are however still some things that I watch that are indicating that it could turn more north, so I must still say there is a chance and you should certainly continue to check back here in case things change.  For some reason the models have a habit of losing storms in the 3-6 day range that they had in the 7-12 day range, then bring them back with 3-4 days to go.  I have seen this many times.  My theory on this is that the models lose important data when the disturbances that are to produce the storm move out over the Pacific Ocean at around 6 days out.  Prior to this point they are still over land in Russia so weather stations over land there are able to provide the data.  Then when these disturbances move out over the North Pacific the only way you can obtain data is through satellite or when a plane or ship happens to move through them.  Obviously this data is not as plentiful, and I believe that wreaks havoc on the models in this time range.  Then, as the disturbance moves over land in North America the weather stations are once again able to provide the needed information to the models.  This MAY be the case here as well, but we will just have to wait it out over the next couple of days and see what happens.  As I said before there are still signs that this storm may indeed happen, but at this point I would be crazy not to lean against the storm as there is NO model that currently has it at all.  Remember I said that the European model has the higher degree of accuracy with East Coast storms?   Interestingly, even if this storm does not hit us, it still has the storm, it develops it off the Southeast Coast and hits the Eastern Carolinas with some rain, and then it turns the storm out to sea.  The American model does not have the storm at all really, so if there is any storm at all, and I am fairly certain there will be, this is how the model maintains the higher degree of accuracy.  What may look like a miss to us would indeed be closer to reality than the model that shows nothing developing at all.  And now, back to our regularly scheduled forecast.  It will be quite cold today followed by some warming tomorrow.   Monday will be nice as well, but likely a touch cooler than Sunday.  Tuesday morning the arctic cold front will move through our area, bringing with it some snow showers in the morning, followed by clearing in the afternoon.  It now appears that this front will push far enough off shore that any developing Nor'easter would remain out to sea, although I will keep a close eye on it just in case.  If this storm does indeed stay out to sea it would mean nice days from Wednesday through Sunday with very cold weather on Wednesday into Thursday morning with lows dropping to the low to mid 20’s and possibly the teens in the coldest locations of Northwest New Jersey, and highs remaining in the mid to upper 30’s on Wednesday.  Temperatures will then gradually warm to the mid 40’s on Thursday afternoon, and the upper 40’s to low 50’s for Friday through Sunday.  Next Monday a cold front will approach, bringing a chance of showers followed by colder weather for next Tuesday and Wednesday.  Things will then gradually warm again prior to the next frontal system approaching next Friday with a chance of showers.