Sunday, November 10th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, apparently my interest in the Wednesday night and Thursday storm was unwarranted.  Often when I see things like I saw with that potential, and feel the way I do about it, the storm ends up happening, but it does not look as if this will be the cast this time.  I guess the model was focusing on the wrong features.  I thought about this quite a bit and what I think happened was that the extremely strong typhoon that hit the Philippines and possibly killed 10,000 people (one of the strongest typhoons EVER recorded) may have messed up the models.  Click here to read the story about this incredible Typhoon.  I saw this once before earlier this year with the models as well and now I am really thinking that is what happened.  The chaos created by such an extreme event messed something up with the models I believe.  Anyway, Mother Nature is definitely sometimes unpredictable and I am certainly far from perfect myself.  The one thing I hope you all realize though, is that if you follow me, sometimes I will get it wrong and predict the possibility for a storm that does not end up happening, but it is extremely unlikely that I will ever be surprised by a storm that does happen.  You know that you will hear the potential here first, and that is the best I can do.  I will give you the potential as I see it, and sometimes it simply won’t work out, but what I will almost never do is miss a big one completely.  Anyway, moving forward we will have nice days today and tomorrow with warmer temperatures and only a slight chance of a shower today.  The highs will reach the low 50’s today and around 50 tomorrow.  Then the arctic cold front will push through here early on Tuesday, bringing with it some snow showers and squalls from around 1 am until 8-9 am with a dusting of accumulation possible in some locations and possibly up to an inch in the higher elevations.  It would not surprise me if the snow squalls came down heavy for brief periods of time and it is possible that it could be hard enough to make the roads slick for brief period of time as well during the morning rush on Tuesday, so please keep a close on eye on this, just in case.  It will then be cold on Tuesday and Wednesday behind this front with the highs only in the mid to upper 30’s on both Tuesday and Wednesday, and lows dropping to the low to mid 20’s on Wednesday and Thursday and the mid to upper 20’s on Friday.  Temperatures will start to moderate on Thursday with the highs reaching the mid 40’s, then the low 50’s on Friday and the mid 50’s on Saturday, then will drop off a bit as the cold front approaches, with a high in the low 50’s on Sunday.  Next Monday we will have a chance of rain ahead of the front with a high in the upper 40’s, then next Tuesday it will be even warmer with a chance of showers as warm air surges out ahead of the front with highs in the upper 50’s. It will then be cold again behind this front.