Tuesday, November, 26th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, I called this Nor'easter about 2 weeks ago.  It is now here and we need to worry about the evening commute today and the morning commute tomorrow.  I was very surprised last evening at the fact that no advisory had been issued by the National Weather Service for the possibility of freezing rain this evening, but that has finally been corrected.  Now I am wondering why they don’t have flood watches and high wind watches in effect for tomorrow?  We are likely to receive between 2.50 and 3.00 inches of rain which will come down very heavy tomorrow morning and winds may gust over 50 mph.  This is likely to lead to some very serious travel problems tomorrow morning.  First though, snow has already started falling in Northeast Pennsylvania and in Southeast New York State, just outside of our area.  There have even been some flurries already over Sussex County this morning.  Today the light precipitation will move into our area this afternoon with light snow or light rain developing between 2 pm and 5 pm and mixing with sleet, then possibly changing to freezing rain before changing to rain between 7 pm and 9 pm.  A dusting to an inch of snow and ice accumulation is possible, especially in the higher elevations in Northwest New Jersey; high in the mid 30’s, dropping to the low 30’s after the precipitation starts, then rising after 7 pm.  Very heavy rain in the morning and high winds developing, flash flooding is likely in many areas, rain in the afternoon, changing to light snow and snow showers between 4 pm and 7 pm from west to east, a dusting to an inch of accumulation is possible, morning highs in the low to mid 50’s, dropping to the mid 30’s in the evening.  Thanksgiving Day will be variably cloudy with a chance of a snow shower or flurry, low in the upper teens to low 20’s, high in the mid to upper 20’s.  Black Friday will be variably cloudy with a chance of a snow shower or flurry, low in the mid to upper teens, high in the low 30’s.  This weekend we will need to keep an eye out for the possibility of some light snow late on Saturday night and into Sunday morning as some warm air moves back into our area, followed by the chance of some rain on Sunday afternoon.  Then on Monday and Tuesday there is a chance of another Nor'easter developing along the Middle Atlantic Coast.  This one is a very tough call and has no more than a 50/50 chance of happening at this point, but it also has the potential to be very intense if it does happen.  It is one of those things where it may not develop at all, it may develop but remain weak, or it may develop and become quite severe.  Right now I have us down for a chance of rain next Monday and Tuesday with this possibility, but again, it may not happen.  On the other hand, if the storm were to maximize its full potential it would have the possibility of pulling cold air into it and become a big snowstorm, so we really need to keep a very close eye on this potential.  After that there is much uncertainty at this point but it does look as if there may be a chance of another storm next Thursday night and Friday, and I am already watching for the possibility of another Nor'easter around Monday, December 9^th or Tuesday, December 10^th.  We have entered an extremely active weather pattern and I would suggest you keep a close eye on this blog and tell all of your friends and family about it.