Afternoon European Model Update

The afternoon run of the European model holds firm with the storm tonight, still projecting snowfall of from 1-5 inches in Northern New Jersey from southeast to northwest.  It really hits Northern Warren, Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties hard, showing over 4 inches in those areas, then the gradient gradually drops as you head south and east.  Honestly though, I would cut these projections in half as the ground is warm and I believe the model is likely not calculating in the sleet which will cut back on accumulations.  The rain should start to mix with sleet this evening by 7pm, then change to sleet between 10 pm and 1 am and then to snow between 12 pm and 2 am.  The snow will come to and end by around 4 am.  Then for the Sunday night into Monday morning storm the model is now projecting 1-3 inches across our region from southeast to northwest.  It starts the snow around 8 pm on Sunday night and then gradually changes it to sleet and then freezing rain by around 4 - 6 am on Monday morning.  It then looks like the next storm on Tuesday will slide just east of us, possibly just giving us some flurries, then it will get very cold with lows dropping to around 10 degrees on Thursday and Friday mornings, with some areas likely to get into the single digits, and the highs on Thursday and Friday will only be in the low to mid 20's.  Then we will have to watch the next storm that will be approaching our area from the Southeastern United States.  This storm will likely be quite significant and will probably bring us some snow on Saturday afternoon and night, possibly changing to rain next Sunday depending ont the track the storm takes.