Tuesday, December 31, 2013

European Model Develops the Storm Further Out Sea Now, Lowering Accumulations Dramatically! It Makes the 2nd Storm the Real Deal but 50's and Rain for Us!

The European model has taken the major impacts from the Thursday night into Friday storm out to sea on this run, giving only about 3-4 inches of accumulation now.  It looks as if the European model was messing something up with this storm if this turns out to be the case.  It is very surprising to see the model do something like this with only a few days to ago.  It is highly unusual for this model to do something like this, but no person and no model is perfect.  Anyway, our foot of snow is gone and the blizzard potential is gone. Some people will be very happy and some will be upset, but that is the reality of the situation.  Anyway, we will get light snow during the day on Thursday that will not be a big deal, then the majority of the snow will fall on Thursday night into very early on Friday, ending by Friday morning.  Total accumulations now look to be mainly 3-4 or possibly 5 inches.  For those of you looking for the foot or more, I am sorry, it is apparently not going to happen.  For those of you hoping this storm would just disappear, you are now more than half way there.  It will however get even colder now for Friday with lows dropping to the single digits on Friday morning. It then saves the energy for the second storm that it develops into a an absolute monster, but we will be on the warm side of the storm with temperatures reaching the upper 50's on Monday morning and a blizzard with temperatures in the teens in the western half of Pennsylvania.  Wind gusts and heavy rain will then be the problem for us with wind gusts of 40-50 mph or higher likely along with flooding rains, followed by a tremendous flash-freeze as temperatures drop into the 20's by late afternoon on Monday and into the single digits by Tuesday morning, with a high on Tuesday only around 10 and then dropping below zero by Wednesday morning.  Well, big changes and big swings, but the bottom line is that we are likely going to be facing some very severe weather of some sort or other by early next week, so stay tuned.  Someone is likely to get a blizzard and someone else is likely to get to near 60 degrees within the next week.  Everyone though in the Northeast is likely to have strong winds that will knock down some trees and power lines, if the European model is right about the second storm that is, and who knows.  It did mess up the first one apparently, but it would be even more unusual that it would mess up both.  It most likely was just putting too much focus on the first one.  Stay tuned for the latest in the saga later today.  Wow, this is crazy stuff.

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