European Model Ensemble Mean for Tomorrow

The European model ensemble mean is probably the best way to go with this storm.  It has 2 inches for Northwestern New Jersey and 2.5 inches for Northeastern New Jersey.  At the moment that would definitely be my best guess.  However, the European model has been trending a little higher on each run and the American models have been consistently higher although our short-range model just backed down from its much higher numbers.  The medium range American model still has us down for 4-5 inches.  This is why the National Weather Service went with 2-4 inches, which is reasonable, although I would have to go with the European model ensemble mean.  Start time should be around 5-5:30 am in western sections and around 5:30-6:00 in eastern sections, and end time should be around 1:30-2:00 in western sections and around 2:00-2:30 in eastern sections.

Also, click here or on the map below to view the latest short-range American model snowfall output projection, which actually looks pretty similar to the European model but the European model has slightly lower projected totals.