Friday, December 13th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

The storm is coming.  Yeah the one that some other forecasters were saying was going to miss us just a couple of days ago.  And oh yes, the National Weather Service finally gave in and issued a Winters Storm Watch, although I have no ideas why they waited so long.  What is even funnier is that first they wait to issue it because they are not sure it is going to be that bad, then they go crazy with the totals, saying 6-10 inches of snow with l little mixing.  Anyway, yes, it will snow tomorrow.  It should start lightly between 5 am and 7 am as either light snow or flurries and continue through the day, becoming a bit heavier around mid-day and then quite heavy in the evening, especially between around 7 pm and 10 pm.  It will be around 10 pm that the snow may start to mix with or change to sleet and freezing rain, and then possibly even rain in far eastern sections.  This is why I will go with a total accumulation of 4-8 inches across Northern New Jersey, with the higher accumulations in Northwest New Jersey where there will be less mixing.  The snow should end by sunrise on Sunday morning.  A slight change in the track could make the National Weather Service forecasts verify, but at this moment in time I think they went too high due to the likelihood of mixing.  Of course, that could change on future runs, so check back for updates.  After this storm passes we will have a bit more snow on Tuesday morning, likely accumulating to about an inch.  Then it will get very warm by next weekend, with the temperatures likely reaching 60 degrees on Saturday and possibly into Sunday morning as very warm air surges north ahead of a strong cold front.  The rain could even change to snow by next Sunday night and into Monday.  Then we may get a bit of snow for Christmas Day, although the extremely cold air that the models showed yesterday for Christmas Day have disappeared today.  Then there is a chance of a snowstorm for Friday, December 27^th.  Check back for the latest updates on tomorrow’s snowstorm.  Happy Friday!