Monday, December 9th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, we are definitely in a very volatile weather pattern.  Click here to check out these snowfall amounts in Delaware, and Southern New Jersey, with an 11 inch total in one location in Salem County, just unreal.  This goes along with what I have been saying about this being an extremely volatile weather pattern.  The forecast amounts from the National Weather Service were for rain with little or no accumulation in many areas that got hammered with up to 9 inches of snow.  Now, as I have been saying, we are in a very volatile pattern unlike any I have seen in probably 20 years since the winter of 1993-1994.  In this type of weather pattern storms are capable of popping up with little notice and becoming quite intense as the one did yesterday, surprising the major forecasters.  To a degree this may happen tomorrow as well.  The European model had been showing only flurries while the two American models were showing 2-3 inches of snow consistently.  Now the European model is saying that we will get slightly more than an inch tomorrow.  This was a major move toward what the American models have been showing and makes me wonder if possibly they were correct all along.  I will not jump on the wagon just yet and say that everyone is going to get nearly 3 inches of snow tomorrow like both of those models are showing, but it is starting to look like a very real possibility.  I will leave it for now at 1-3 inches just in case the European model is right and the two American models are over-doing it.  However, I also would not be surprised if some areas end up getting a surprise again tomorrow and get even more than that, possibly as much as 4-5 inches in some areas, with the highest chance of that happening as you get in toward central New Jersey and possibly event toward Staten Island.   That is not a guarantee at all, it is just a possibility.  It is also very possible that the European model is right and we get just about an inch.  I will know more after the next European model run comes out this afternoon.  The snow should start tomorrow around 8 am and end around 1 pm.  Then it will get VERY cold for the foreseeable future with highs in the 20’s after this storm passes and lows dropping well into the single digits in most locations and possibly even below zero by early next week.  This weekend however we will have to watch as a storm approaches us from the Southeastern United States.  This storm may intensify as it approaches the coast on Saturday night, with the possibility of bringing us some light snow in the morning on Saturday that could become heavy in the afternoon and at night.  The snow would then linger lightly through the day on Monday.  Then we will have a chance of a Nor'easter forming off the coast on Tuesday night and Wednesday, although it is still too early to tell whether this storm would get close enough to the coast to affect us.  Then there is already another storm on the models for the following weekend.  Wow, this is really a very active and very volatile weather pattern.  Honestly, this type of pattern reminds me of 1993-1994 in many ways and that was the worst year for snow and ice I have ever seen.  Though, even that year, it did not start until just after New Year’s.  I don’t ever in my life remember seeing this kind of cold and snow this early in the season.  Sure, we have gotten some early season snowstorms and some cold weather before, but I don’t ever remember seeing sustained extreme cold with constant winter storm threats in early December.  This is just amazing.