Saturday, December 7th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, after my worst forecast bust of all time I have picked myself back up to produce this here forecast. What happened last night was that the precipitation moved through here faster than the models projected, so the drop in temperature projected by the model was lagging behind the precipitation, making it appear as if the rain would change to snow before ending when in reality the rain stopped before the cold air got here. Anyway, live and learn and at least this storm for tomorrow night looks as if it should be much easier to forecast.  Right now it looks clear that it will start out as snow and it should definitely accumulate this time since the temperatures will be below freezing in most areas for about 24 hours prior to the snow starting, from tonight through tomorrow night when it starts.  The snow should start tomorrow evening as flurries or a bit of light snow sometime after 4 pm and until 10 pm.  Then the snow should become just a bit more intense and steady, although still light until around 1 or 2 am on Monday when it will start to mix with sleet and then change to freezing rain, prior to warming above freezing and changing to rain in all areas between 3 am and 7 am from southeast to northwest across the region.  Total snowfall accumulations should be between 1 and 2 inches throughout the region prior to the changeover.  How much will be left before morning so you can see it though is another question all together as the rain will likely wash some, if not all, of it away in some places by sunrise.  There may be some slick spots for the morning rush on Monday, however I don't expect major problems at this time. We will then have showers during the day on Monday.  On Tuesday it looks as if we will have a chance of some snow flurries or a snow shower, then things look quiet but get very cold as we head toward the end of next week, with lows dropping to the teens by Thursday morning in all locations and highs on Thursday and Friday only in the mid to upper 20’s.  Next weekend we will have to watch as a low pressure area is likely to approach us from the Southeastern United States.  This storm has the potential to become a Nor'easter and right now it looks to be our best chance yet this season of getting an all snow event.  The timing differs however on the American and European models.  The American model has it coming in next Sunday while the European model says it is for next Monday.  I went with the American model on the timing at this point, but this could change.  If the European model ends up being correct on the timing, then temperatures would be MUCH colder next weekend than what I am currently showing.  Check back for updates.