Thursday, December 19, 2013

Two Chances for Snow Next Week and Two Chances for the Week After

The Canadian model very badly wants to bring us a white Christmas, as it has been consistently showing some snow for us on Christmas Eve and this run is the most emphatic of all, bringing us snow from late Monday night through Christmas Eve and into Christmas morning with significant accumulations throughout our entire area.  Unfortunately for those wanting snow, this is the only model showing this at the moment, although some of the ensemble means of the various models do show this as being a real possibility.  Also, the Canadian model is a very good model, second in that time range in terms of accuracy, behind only the European model.  The European model however does NOT show this storm.  I will however be awaiting the European model ensemble mean later today which will be more telling.  Then for next Thursday and into Friday (I have been focused on next Friday for quite some time), the European model shows a Nor'easter developing near the Florida and Georgia Coast next Thursday and moving due north up the coast, being off the New Jersey Coast by next Friday morning.  Taken verbatim, the model does show rain, although it would definitely be a close call and I would be surprised if the models did not trend colder with that storm track.  Oh, yes, and my New Year's storm is also there for New Year's Eve, possibly into New Year's Day.  And yes, I am ready to make my next storm declaration.  I am now focused on Saturday, January 4th for a possible snow event.  So, to sum up, there is one possible event for next Tuesday, then I am really focused on next Friday the 27th, then Tuesday the 31st, then Saturday the 4th of January.

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