Wednesday, December 4th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

I have looked at all the latest information, including the National Weather Service and the New York Television and radio stations, just for giggles, and I have seen nothing that would change my mind about what the European model is showing.  I am just surprised that the New York television and radio stations are not talking about the potential snow in our area, although I guess that should not really surprise me.  They will figure it out about the same time our American model does, and that should be on Friday just before it actually starts.  I will continue to go with the European model until or unless it changes its mind.  It has been very consistent and is by far the most accurate of the models in this time frame.  I will post below what I wrote earlier after the model came out and I have seen nothing to change my mind.  What is going to happen is that an area of low pressure is going to develop and track along a front late on Friday.  What I believe will happen, and what the European model is showing, is that soon after the precipitation starts from this storm on Friday evening, the temperatures should fall rapidly and the rain should change to snow.  The storm will take a track to our south and east which would also favor snow, so I can definitely see how the snowfall totals that the European model is showing would be possible.  I guess though I would be surprised if anyone actually got the 4 inch totals, with that being the most likely in the highest elevations of Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties.  Otherwise I would expect to see at least some snow on the ground when you wake up on Saturday morning, whether it is as little as a dusting or as much as 3-4 inches is the real question in my mind.  I would give it my best guess at the moment that most areas will receive a dusting to 2 inches, with some locations in Sussex and Northern Passaic receiving 3 or more inches.  But as I said before the European model is actually showing more than that, yet the TV weather forecasters in New York don't even talk about it.  It really does amaze me.  It is like they hug the American model and don't even look at anything else.  If I am going to hug a model, it is going to be the European model every time.  Anyway, we shall soon see what happens.  After this the European model is showing a repeat performance on Sunday night into Monday, then it will get very cold for the middle of next week, followed by more chances for snow later in the week or next weekend.  The American model is even showing a chance for snow this coming Tuesday also, but I don't trust our model.  Honestly, it would not be impossible though either, so something else to think about. Check back tomorrow morning for the latest in this saga.  Below is my detail from the European model run this afternoon.  Again, this is what the model is showing, I would cut back the snowfall amounts a touch just to be safe, but it is possible this will end up being accurate.

The European model continues to insist that we will be receiving accumulating snow on Friday night into Saturday morning and accumulating snow and ice for Sunday night into early Monday morning.  The model is currently projecting a dusting to 2 inches of snow for Southern Hunterdon, Somerset, Union, Hudson, Essex and Eastern Bergen Counties, and 2-4 inches for Northern Hunterdon, Warren, Morris, Sussex, Passaic, and Western Bergen Counties.  The higher amounts in each of those areas are as you head to the north and west.  The rain will change to snow on Friday night, between around 10 pm and 12 midnight on Saturday morning and will end around 4am on Saturday.  Then on Sunday the next storm will approach, bringing more snow starting around 5 pm.  The snow will then mix with and change to sleet and freezing rain, then to rain by around 2-4 am on Monday morning.  The model is projecting similar amounts of snow and ice with the storm on Sunday night.  The snow should change to rain in all areas by around 2-4 am on Monday morning but it could make for a difficult commute on Monday morning.