Sunday, December 8, 2013

Wow! Latest Short-Range American Model!

It now has light snow starting around 12-1 pm and becoming steady and heavy across most sections by 4 pm with total accumulations of around 5 inches prior to the changeover everywhere!  It has brought in the precipitation earlier, just like with the last storm, however as I said last night, this time the cold air is already in place and will be leaving, rather than the other way around where the precipitation came in earlier than expected and the cold air did not get here in time.  In essence, what the model is projecting is the reverse of the problem with the forecast with the last storm on Friday night.  These amounts would even include areas down into central New Jersey!  What will happen is that the model is now bringing the majority of the precipitation in by 10 pm tonight before the cold air even has a chance to move out!  This is EXACTLY the opposite of what happened on Friday night, just like I said last night!   The snow will start to mix with sleet and then change to sleet and freezing rain starting around 10 pm - 12 midnight from south to north, and then transition to rain as ground temperatures start to rise above freezing from 4 am in extreme southeastern sections of northern New Jersey to 7 am from roughly Rt. 80 and Rt. 287 north and west, and as late as 8 am in far Northwest sections.

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