Friday, January 31st, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

The weather has certainly warmed up quite a bit and the highs tomorrow will reach the low 40's and the mid to upper 40's on Sunday.  There will however be a chance of showers on Sunday, possibly changing to snow late at night.  Then on Monday, light snow will develop early in the morning, becoming moderate at times, and ending in the afternoon with 1-5 inches of accumulation from north to south across the area.  The lightest accumulations will be in northern Sussex County and the highest accumulations will be south of Rt. 78.  Then on Tuesday another storm will approach, bringing more snow on Tuesday night, changing to sleet and freezing rain heavy at times, then possibly changing to rain before ending in the early afternoon. A light accumulation of snow, followed by a heavy ice accumulation is likely.  In fact, if this freezing rain ends up being what it looks like right now we may have some problems here on Wednesday, but let's wait and see how this ends up.  My gut instinct is that this storm will trend colder again and we get more snow, but only time will tell.  I won't trust any models with these storms until the pieces of energy responsible for producing them come on shore from the Pacific Ocean.  The one that will produce the Monday storm will come on shore on Sunday morning and the piece that will produce the Tuesday night into Wednesday storm will come on shore on Sunday night.  After this storm passes we will have to keep a close eye on the potential storm for next weekend.  I have had some people asking me about any possible blizzards.  Well, if you want one, this will be your best chance at it.  As I said before, this one has explosive potential.  However, just because it has that potential does NOT mean it will happen.  Just look at the one for this Wednesday that at one time looked like a massive snowstorm.  Unless something changes drastically with this storm it will be a freezing rain storm.  The one for next weekend does have the potential to be something extremely significant. There is no question about the potential.  However, ALL of the pieces would have to come together to produce the storm.  That is of course not highly likely.  It is certainly not impossible, but it IS unlikely.  The reason this first storm for Tuesday night and Wednesday has changed so significantly is that it has broken up into two separate pieces, one being the storm on Monday, and the other for Tuesday night and Wednesday.  The models were originally projecting the two pieces to come together, but the one is racing ahead of the other, giving us the potential for snow on Monday.  If the same thing happens with the storm for next weekend, then there would just be two separate storms, one likely to be freezing rain on Friday night and Saturday morning, and one likely to be a bit of snow on Sunday.  If the two were to come together next weekend into one big storm, then yes, that one does have explosive potential.  Check back in the morning for the latest.  Have a wonderful evening.