Friday, January 3rd, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

The storm ended up working out nearly exactly as I expected.  I forecast 5-10 inches in Northwest New Jersey and 6-12 inches for everyone else and I received 6 inches at my location and my mom reported 8 inches near Asbury Park and it is still snowing there.  There are reports of as much as a foot in coastal sections of Monmouth and Ocean Counties and into New York City and on Long Island.  The reason for my unusually large ranges for the totals was due to the uncertainty of the snow to liquid ratios, which was expected to be higher than the typical 10:1 ratio and it looks to have come out to about a 13:1 ratio which is a touch lower than what I expected, but is close.  I had expected a 15:1 ratio, but the snow to liquid ratio is always nearly impossible to accurately forecast.  So in essence, I thought we all might get another inch or two of accumulation, but I am pretty happy with the outcome overall.  A State of Emergency was declared for New Jersey and Blizzard warnings were issued for Long Island, just as I had forecast.  I initially saw signs of this storm and made a post on this possible storm back on December 15th (18 days out).  As I have said before, it is possible to see signs of these storms in the distant future, if you know what to look for, but 18 days breaks my record and I can’t imagine ever breaking this record.  Moving forward, arctic air will move into our area behind this storm today with the temperatures holding steady in the upper single digits to low teens, then drop below zero tonight.  We will then have the coldest temperatures we have seen in many years tonight, as temperatures will drop to the mid single digits below zero by morning.  Please make sure that you keep any outside water pipes warm so they don’t freeze tonight.  Then another arctic front will approach our area on Monday, and an intense storm will form along this front, bringing us light rain starting late on Sunday morning.  This light rain could start briefly as light freezing rain in some locations.  The light rain will continue into the night on Sunday and then become heavy at times and continue into Monday morning.  The heavy rain combined with the rapid snow melt will likely lead to some flooding.  It will also be very windy on Monday, with wind gusts of up to 40 mph expected.  Temperatures will rise through the day on Sunday, to the upper 40’s by midnight, then the high for Monday will be in the morning in the upper 40’s, and then drop through the day to the mid 30’s by afternoon and then to the 20’s by evening, causing any standing water from the heavy rains and snow melt to freeze.   In addition, in the late morning the rain may change to snow flurries or snow showers that could leave a dusting of snow.  Then the temperatures will plummet again on Monday night, reaching the mid single digits below zero again by Tuesday morning and the high may not make it out of the single digits on Tuesday.  The next storm to be concerned about will then occur next Thursday.  Right now this storm looks to be a snow threat, however at this particular moment in time it does not look to be a significant snow threat, looking more like 1-2 inches during the day, but we will need to keep a close eye on this storm just in case it intensifies more.  Then the next storm of concern will likely occur next Sunday and Monday but this storm currently looks like rain although it is really too early to be sure so we will need to keep an eye on it.  Then another storm will approach for the middle of the following week, and this storm currently also looks like rain, then possibly snow, but honestly this storm is much too far out to be sure of anything just yet.   There are signs that one of these two, or both of the storms starting next weekend and into the middle of next week could be quite significant as they are likely to have significant moisture to work with from the Gulf of Mexico, and initially the disturbances involved with these storms are projected to be quite strong.  As always, the question will be whether and how the cold air to the north interacts with these storms.  I will let you know.  Check back for updates. 

Picture from Interlaken, New Jersey (Just Outside of Asbury Park)

Picture of Panther Valley Golf Course in Allamuchy, Warren County, New Jersey