Interesting Forecast Discussions From the National Weather Service Offices - They Discuss Possibly Issuing BLIZZARD Watches

Excerpt from the New York forecast Office in Upton discussing possible blizzard watch:

OR OUR REGION...PROBABILITY FOR HEAVIER SNOW BANDING INCREASES LATE
THU INTO THU EVENING AS THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WORK TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE/S INTENSIFIES ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150+ KT UPPER JET. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CLUSTERED IN THESE LOW PRESSURE AREAS TRACKING NE...JUST
SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINED
INCREASE IN DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT...DEFORMATION...AND OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND/S TO DEVELOP
AND GRADUALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THU EVENING INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING. ADDITIONAL QPF RANGING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH
HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AS TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE
TEENS...BRING POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.
AS USUAL...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN EXACT SNOWFALL TOTALS UNTIL
MESOSCALE BANDING BEGINS TAKING SHAPE...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5
TO 9 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 7 TO 11 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR NE WINDS TO BEGIN INCREASING THU NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST
WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO COMBINED STRONG
CAA AND INTENSIFYING GRADIENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND
GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FROM NYC METRO...ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...AND INTO FAR SE CONNECTICUT DURING THIS TIME. THESE
STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH A POWDERY SNOW WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH POTENTIAL BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
HOLD OFF ON BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NOW WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
INTENSITY AND DURATION OF SNOW BANDING ALONG THE COAST. TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

Excerpt from the Mt. Holly, NJ forecast office where they discuss the high ratios:

IMPACTS...WHILE SOME SNOW COULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON THURSDAY,
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS COULD BE FELT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
IMPACTS INCLUDE THE COMBINATION OF A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS, GUSTY
WINDS PRODUCING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS, LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY WITH 20- TO
POTENTIALLY 30-1 RATIOS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
15-1 RATIOS SHOULD BE COMMON WHERE TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE TEENS.



Click here to read to read the full forecast discussion from Upton, NY National Weather Service Office.  And click here to read the full forecast discussion from Mt. Holly, NJ National Weather Service Office.