Monday, January 20th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

I had first started talking about this possible snowstorm last Monday.  I said it might be quite significant, and that it had blizzard potential.  It most likely won’t reach blizzard strength here, but it will most likely get very close on Eastern Long Island and for Eastern New England.  The models did a better job with this storm a week ago then they did even yesterday at this time when they showed nothing for us.  Things started changing yesterday afternoon, and got progressively worse on every single run until now when they look almost as they did a week ago.  The worst of this storm is likely to miss us just to the east; therefore, my forecast is for 2-5 inches of snow for Northwest New Jersey and 3-6 inches in Northeast New Jersey.  Coastal sections and eastern Long Island are likely to get around 6 inches with near-blizzard conditions.  The snow should start around 9-10 am on Tuesday morning and will most likely end around 11 pm – midnight on Tuesday night.  Wednesday will then be quite cold with lows dropping to around zero and highs only in the low to mid teens.  The Thursday storm will likely not be very significant now as the storm tomorrow will rob much of its energy, so on Thursday expect just some light snow or snow showers with a dusting to an inch of accumulation possible.  This weekend we will have a chance of snow showers on both Saturday and Sunday and there could be some accumulation both days.  Then it will get quite cold again by next Tuesday, with lows possibly dropping below zero on Tuesday morning and highs next Tuesday only in the low teens.  There will then be a chance of snow on Wednesday night and Thursday.  As far as the Super Bowl weekend, yesterday there was some hope for warmth ahead of a strong storm system but the storm is not likely to be anywhere near as strong as it looked yesterday, so it will not be able to buckle the jet stream.  This will lead to another chance for snow on Saturday night before the Super Bowl, ending on Super Bowl Sunday morning.  There could be significant accumulations with this storm.  As this storm departs it will allow much colder air to filter into the area during the evening, just in time for the Super Bowl, with the high on Super Bowl Sunday only in the mid 20’s, possibly dropping to around 20 by game time, then possibly to the upper single digits by the end of the game, then very possibly below zero by the next morning.