Saturday, January 25th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

We got a bit more snow today than I though we would as the storm intensified quite a bit when it hit the coast this afternoon.  I measured 2.8 inches in Allamuchy, Warren County.  However, after reviewing the snowfall totals from the National Weather Service, it looks like I was still pretty close to accurate with this storm as my total was actually one of the highest in the state.  Just across the river a band of heavier snow set up that extended basically along the Rt. 80 corridor with Butler, NJ, getting 2.0 inches and areas to the west in Pennsylvania getting as much as 3-4 inches.  Anyway, moving forward we will get some snow showers tomorrow night and Monday that could give us a dusting to a half of an inch of snow, then I will be watching a storm that is likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.  This storm may very well intensify quite a bit and has the potential to give coastal sections of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina a significant snowfall on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, and possibly even into inland locations in those states if the storm strengthens enough.  The question is whether this storm could strengthen enough to turn up the coast even more.  At the moment that is not looking likely, however I am not yet ready to write off that possibility completely.  I believe this situation may end up (at least for the Southeastern United States) much like what we saw here this week when the models only picked up on the storm when we got within about 48 hours of the storm actually happening.  This is because the models see the storm when it is over land in Siberia, then they lose it when it goes over the Pacific Ocean, then pick it back up again when it hits land, and this is usually only about 2 days before the storm.  However, even if this occurs again this time it may not be able to turn far enough of the up the coast to bring us any snow on Wednesday due to the location this time of the various systems.  I am not yet ready to say it is impossible, but at the moment that is looking highly unlikely.  After this storm passes we will have another chance at a bit of snow on Thursday night and Friday morning that could bring us a dusting to an inch or so.  Then this coming Super Bowl weekend we will likely see a storm approach on Friday night into Sunday morning.  This storm is likely to start out as light snow, but may very well turn to freezing rain by Saturday evening, then to rain by Sunday morning before ending.  There could then be some rain showers for Super Bowl Sunday, or snow showers if the cold front moves back through.  Right now we are on the dividing line with this storm so it could end up being quite warm on Super Bowl Sunday, or if the cold front comes through it could cool off quite a bit by game time.  It is just a bit too early to tell for sure.  Then the following week the weather is looking quite active but it looks as if we will be on the dividing line between rain and snow all that week.