Sunday, January 26th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

Didn't I do this last weekend?  I am having a case of Deja Vu this evening.  It is funny.  I was thinking I might be doing this tonight because this storm is about 12 hours behind last week’s storm.  The piece of energy responsible for producing this storm is in the process of coming on shore from the Pacific Ocean this evening.  As a result, the models are starting to shift this storm back to the north and west.  Am I surprised?  No, I expected this totally and completely.  Now the only question in my mind is how far north and west this storm will trend.  It could be that it is done trending north and west.  It could also be that this is just the first north and west trend of the storm and there could very easily be several more to come.  I have no way of knowing what will happen next but I can say that with the storm last week there were several more still to come.  Only time will tell.  Check back for updates.  However at the moment the Medium Range American model is showing the possibility of a crippling snowstorm for Central Georgia, Central South Carolina, Central North Carolina, and Southeastern Virginia.  It even manages to get a few inches as close as extreme Southeastern New Jersey.  Keep in mind that the ensemble mean of the American Medium Range model even comes north and west of this, giving Northern New Jersey an inch of snow on Wednesday and the Southern half of New Jersey 3-5 inches.  I have no idea how this will turn out but it is certainly interesting.  Before this storm happens we will get a snow shower or two tomorrow morning, then after this storm we will likely get a few snow showers on Thursday night and Friday morning.  Then starting on Saturday things are going to get a bit crazy around here for a while.  It is just impossible to tell how all this will work out exactly.  The arctic cold front will stall out just to our south and many low pressure areas will form along it starting on Saturday and going through the following week.  There will be one nearly every day.  Unfortunately it is difficult to tell how all this will work out though as the front may wobble a bit, possibly even to our north from time to time, which would bring us a chance for some freezing rain or rain.  This evening’s run of the American model did look significantly colder than prior runs though and would make all of them snow.  The timing of each wave of low pressure is merely a guess at this point, but they appear to be scheduled for Saturday, Sunday morning, possibly on Monday, possibly again on Tuesday, then possibly a bigger one for Wednesday and Thursday, and then another for the following weekend.  If by any chance all of these were snow it would be likely that we would be dealing with up to two feet of snow between all the storms.  This pattern is very similar to the winter of January and February 1994 for those of you who remember that year.  Please check back for updates and tell all of your family, friends, relatives, neighbors and unknown people that you have never met before about this blog.  Thank you.  Have a nice evening and be sure to check back for updates.