Sunday, January 5th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

We have a potentially dangerous situation this morning with very cold air having seeped into the valleys of Northern New Jersey.  The temperatures have dropped into the single digits in many of the valleys in Northern New Jersey and light rain is on our doorsteps.  The temperatures will rise rapidly this morning and into this afternoon, but the light rain may make it here first and it will freeze on contact with the very cold ground.  The freezing rain will change to rain this afternoon, then the rain will become heavy at times in the morning which could lead to some flooding as temperatures will also rise to the low 50’s by early tomorrow morning, causing all the snow to melt in addition to the heavy rain.  Then the cold front will come through late in the morning, causing winds to gust and temperatures to plummet to the mid 30’s by early afternoon and the mid 20’s by evening.  Any standing water from the heavy rain and snow melt will freeze by evening and we may also get a dusting of snow late tomorrow morning and early tomorrow afternoon that could add to the potentially slippery conditions tomorrow afternoon.  Then temperatures will once again drop to the mid single digits below zero by Tuesday morning, and rise to only the upper single digits on Tuesday afternoon.  The next storm to watch will then be for Friday morning.  This will be a weak storm that could start as early as Thursday with the chance for a bit of light snow or flurries on Thursday that could accumulate to a dusting during the day, then the main chance for some snow would be on Friday morning when a dusting to an inch or two of snow is possible.  It should then clear out late in the day.  Then there are many questions as to what happens starting on Saturday.  I made my forecast based solely on the European model starting on Saturday.  However, there are many possibilities starting on Saturday and through the middle of next week.  The main operational run of the European model shows very warm temperatures for the beginning of next week as a strong area of low pressure is likely to develop along the Gulf Coast and the European model is suggesting that this storm will move up to our west, much as the one tomorrow will do.  If this happens, we would have rain next Monday and Tuesday and temperatures would soar to near 60 degrees by next Tuesday.  If this storm decides to take a track a bit further to our east as the American model shows it would keep temperatures in the 30’s and put us on the dividing line between rain and snow.  This is the potential storm that I first declared a few days ago.  This storm has the potential to be quite significant but it is simply too early to tell whether we will be 60 degrees with rain or 30 degrees with snow.  Check back for updates.