Tuesday, January 28th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

First of all, it is simply amazing how much snow they are getting in the Deep South today, with significant snow in areas of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina that don’t see much snow.  There will even be some snow in Northern Florida tonight!  I was on the front page of a newspaper in North Carolina today for predicting this storm before anyone else, click here to view the article.  What is also amazing is how far north and west this storm came.  When I first started talking about this storm a week ago, as a possibility for being our next significant snowstorm (as the last big storm was occurring), I was not sure how close it would get to us.  I knew it had a chance of getting us, but was not sure if it would.  I was always concerned it might miss us to the east, and it will miss some of us, but it is amazing that this evening it is now looking as if some of us in the southeastern parts of New Jersey and on Long Island might get as much as 4-5 inches of snow tonight.  The rest of us in Northern New Jersey are likely to get only flurries to a dusting in the far Northwest part of the state to the possibility of up to 1-2 inches in the far southeastern sections of Northern New Jersey.  After this storm passes by we will have just a slight chance of a snow shower on Friday, then a chance for a bit of light snow on Saturday morning, then a slight chance for a rain shower during the day, or at night with a high around 40.  Then for Super Bowl Sunday we will have a chance of a bit of light snow in the morning, followed by clearing in the afternoon after the arctic cold front moves through.  The high on Sunday should be in the mid 30’s, with temperatures at kick off time around 30 degrees, dropping to the mid to upper 20’s during the game.  It will also likely be breezy with a north wind during the game, making wind chill temperatures drop into the teens or possibly even single digits.  The front will then stall to our south and a strong disturbance will brush Catalina Island off the Coast of Southern California with some showers on Sunday night while the Super Bowl is occurring in New Jersey.  This disturbance will then go south, remaining just off the coast of Southern California and making landfall in Northern Mexico, then moving eastward through Northern Mexico on Monday, and then into Texas on Tuesday.  This disturbance will then cause an area of low pressure to develop along the front near the Gulf Coast on Tuesday.  This disturbance will then move northeast and intensify as it does, drawing copious moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.  This should result in snow developing on Tuesday morning and becoming heavy at times by Tuesday afternoon.  The heavy snow should continue through Tuesday night.  The storm should reach the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday morning, then possibly intensify, turning into a Nor’easter, with heavy snow continuing into Wednesday evening before ending late at night on Wednesday or early on Thursday morning as the storm continues east, south of Long Island.  If this track verifies, it would mean a major widespread snowstorm for our entire area, probably in the 12-18 inch range.   Of course it is possible that this track could be wrong.  If this storm were to go further north it would mean rain or freezing rain, and if the storm track were to go further south it would mean less snow or no snow at all.  However, at the moment that is my forecast.  Keep in mind that this can certainly change as this is still an entire week away.  We could get a rainstorm out of this or the storm could miss us to the south and we end up with a sunny day, but honestly, this is the way I see it tonight.  What is even more interesting is that there could be another very significant snowstorm in our area on Friday or Saturday of next week, then another one on Sunday or Monday of the following week, then another one on Thursday of that week.  Can you even imagine?  Honestly, this February is looking as if it could really be one to remember as far as snow goes.  My new friends down in North Carolina and the Deep South even have a decent chance at more snow next week around this time.  Why is all this occurring?  Temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are MUCH warmer than normal.  Temperatures over the Northern and Eastern United States are MUCH colder than normal.  When warm and moist air meets cold and dry air…….BOOM.  Get ready to start sounding the alarms…..  Have a nice evening.  Thanks for reading.  Please remember to tell all of your family, friends, relatives, neighbors, television stations, radio stations, newspapers, and unknown people you have never met before about this blog.  Thank you.