Sunday, January 12, 2014
VERY INTERESTING EUROPEAN MODEL RUN! BIG CHANGES!
The run of the European model coming in right now is MASSIVELY different than its prior runs and than other other model currently! This is a warning sign when something like this happens to use caution with the forecast. Major caution is urged with the forecast toward the middle to end of this week now. First MAJOR change is that the Wednesday storm completely disappeared on this model run. And here is why! The piece of energy on this run, instead of moving due east like on prior runs, dives all the way down into the Gulf of Mexico, producing a Nor'easter along the the North Carolina Coast on Wednesday night that would bring some light snow to Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Delaware, and Coastal New Jersey on Wednesday night into Thursday. The storm intensifies on Thursday but remains well off the coast, bringing us only a bit of light snow or flurries on Thursday afternoon, but possibly bringing accumulating snow to coastal sections and Long Island. It then develops another weak storm along the East Coast on Friday night, bringing light snow along the entire East Coast, possibly even including Northern Florida on Friday night, and continuing here on Saturday morning before ending with light accumulations. Then we would have another chance of light snow on Sunday night and then a chance for a storm that initially looks as if it could be extremely significant next Tuesday night into Wednesday and possibly even Thursday. What is interesting to me is that this is simply a MASSIVE change from every other model, and indicates some rather MAJOR changes. When models do something like this it is a very real warning sign to possibly more surprises on future runs. In fact, honestly, there is an intense storm on Thursday over the Great Lakes that is very close to combining forces with this Nor'easter along the Carolina Coast on Thursday. If by any chance the intense storm over the Great Lakes was to combine forces with the Nor'easter along the East Coast, it would pull the storm back in to our area and cause the storm to intensify into an absolute all out massive blizzard. Keep in mind, this is just my creative imagination at work here, but honestly, the model is not that far from doing just that. I will be very interested in seeing the European ensembles this evening to see if any of the members produce such a scenario. It is a very long shot, but it does not at this moment seem to be outside of the realm of possibilities. I was interested this morning in one of the 51 European ensemble members that was already producing a rather significant snowstorm on Thursday, which was strange, but it stuck in my mind. Now this. Interesting to say the least. Honestly, the Friday night storm could very easily also become something much more significant. The atmosphere is currently extremely volatile, as we have witnessed this past week with temperatures twice getting below zero and twice reaching the low 60's. As I have said before many times, NOTHING would surprise me and you honestly almost expect something crazy to happen these days. Stay tuned. I will likely post more updates later when the European ensembles come out. My hunch is that they will be highly entertaining. Some of the other models may start picking up on this as well although the only model that comes out before late tonight is the American model this evening. I just checked the individual ensemble members from the American model that ran this afternoon and found 3 out of 12 that actually have a significant snowstorm for the Middle Atlantic area on Thursday even though the main operational run of the American model has nothing. Check back for updates. This might get interesting. Maybe.
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