Friday, February 7th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

I have been hesitant to completely give up on the Sunday night into Monday storm because the pieces of energy responsible for producing this storm have yet to all completely come on shore from the Pacific Ocean.  The trend started last evening and has continued this evening, with the latest run of the American model producing a much stronger storm than the prior runs, which in turn produces 2-3 inches of snow in Northern New Jersey on Sunday night. 

We will have to wait and see if this trend continues overnight and into tomorrow, or if it is done, or if it is wrong altogether.  This is how these things happen though; they start out coming back one run at a time over a couple of days.  We are still further out in time with this storm than with several of the bigger storms we have gotten so far this year already, so that should prove to everyone that anything IS still possible.  I have definitely not given up on this one yet.  Don’t get me wrong though, I am not yet sure what will happen at all.  It is still possible we could get very little or possibly even no snow at all, but I truly believe it is equally likely that we could get something more significant.  I am not expecting a blizzard or anything like that at this point, but a more significant snowstorm is still a very real possibility.  On the other hand, it is equally possible we get nothing.  If I had to lean in one direction though, I would lean toward a more significant snowstorm on Sunday night into Monday, but we will just have to wait and see.

Moving beyond this highly interesting possibility is the likelihood of a storm developing along the Gulf Coast on Wednesday and moving northeast along the East Coast.  This storm is potentially going to be a VERY SEVERE weather maker and news headline maker in Northeastern Georgia, Western South Carolina, and the western half of North Carolina.  In the areas I just mentioned a VERY SEVERE ice storm is looking quite likely at this time.  If you know anyone who lives in those areas, please tell them to check this blog because this is a potentially very serious situation.  The European model has been showing for several runs now the potential for as much as one and a third inches of freezing rain.  That would be worse than the ice storm that just occurred in areas of Pennsylvania that have been without power for days, and down there it would be even more serious because their trees are less able to handle this type of situation.  This would likely lead to power outages that would last for days, and quite possibly a week in some places. 

As you move north from North Carolina into Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and into Eastern New England the concern would be more about heavy snow, with 6-12 inches or more looking quite likely on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, (except possibly right along the coast where rain would be possible), except currently New York itself looks to be snow.  We need to keep a close eye on this storm.

Then as we head into the end of next week there will be a chance of some snow showers next Friday, and a chance of rain or snow next Saturday or Sunday. 

Have a nice evening everyone!

Another beautiful photo this evening courtesy of Bob Darling, Jr., thanks Bob!