Monday, February 10th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

We will get very cold over the next couple of days with lows dropping to around or slightly below zero tomorrow and Wednesday morning and highs only around 20 both days. 

All eyes will turn to a developing low pressure area along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday.  The storm will bring snow and freezing rain to areas of the Southeast from Northern Louisiana, to Northern Mississippi, Northern Alabama, Tennessee, Northern Georgia, Northwestern South Carolina, and North Carolina on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

On Wednesday morning the center of low pressure will deepen as it reaches a point near New Orleans, continuing the freezing rain and snow in Northern Louisiana, Northern Mississippi, Northeastern Georgia, Tennessee, Northwestern South Carolina, and North Carolina.

On Wednesday afternoon the storm is continuing to deepen as it reaches a point near Panama City, Florida, continuing the snow in Tennessee and bringing heavy freezing rain to Northwestern South Carolina and South Central North Carolina, with snow in Northern North Carolina and rain in Southeastern North Carolina.

On Wednesday evening the low will continue to deepen as it crosses Southern Georgia and emerges along the Southeast Atlantic Coast.  At this point snow will be falling in Northern Mississippi, Northern Alabama, far northern Georgia, Tennessee, Western North Carolina, West Virginia and Virginia, with snow just starting in Maryland.  Heavy freezing rain will be falling in Northwestern South Carolina and Central North Carolina. 

On Wednesday night the storm will continue to deepen as it reaches a point along the Coastal Carolinas.  At this point light snow will be falling throughout most of Alabama, all of Northern Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Western North Carolina, Virginia (west of Interstate 95), West Virginia, Maryland (west of the Delmarva Peninsula), with snow starting throughout Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and into Southeastern New York , New York City, and Long Island.  Heavy freezing rain will continue in Northwestern South Carolina and Central North Carolina.

On Thursday morning the low pressure will continue to deepen as it reaches Eastern North Carolina.  At this point light snow will be falling over Northern Alabama, Northern Georgia, Western South Carolina, Western North Carolina, Western Virginia (west of Interstate 95), West Virginia, Maryland (west of Interstate 95), Pennsylvania (with Philadelphia on the dividing line), Northern New Jersey, and Long Island.  Rain will be falling to the areas south and east of those just mentioned, including Southern New Jersey. 

On Thursday afternoon the storm will start to deepen rapidly as reaches a point near the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula.  At this point light snow will be falling in North Carolina, Virginia (excluding coastal areas), and West Virginia, with heavy snow falling from Northern Virginia through Central and Eastern Pennsylvania (excluding extreme southeastern areas around Philadelphia that will have rain at this point), Northern New Jersey (the southern two thirds of New Jersey should be rain at this point), New York City will be on the dividing line at this point (possibly changing to rain), with rain on Long Island, Southeastern New York will have heavy snow, as will most of New England (excluding Coastal areas that will have rain).

On Thursday evening the storm will be centered along the Coast of New Jersey and it will be approaching blizzard classification with heavy snow falling from Northern Virginia through Maryland, Delaware, Central and Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey (excluding Southeastern Coastal area), Southeastern New York and New York City, and all of New England (excluding coastal areas).  Long Island will still be rain at this point.

On Thursday night the storm will be centered in the Gulf of Maine and will have attained blizzard classification with snow continuing to fall from Maryland through Delaware, Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Eastern New York State and New York City, Long Island, and all of New England (excluding the extreme Southeastern sections). 

On Friday morning the storm will be centered near Nova Scotia with light snow continuing to fall throughout Eastern Sections of New York State and all of New England, with snow having just stopped in areas to south of that. 

In Northern New Jersey and the New York City area the snow should start between about 7 pm and 9 pm on Wednesday evening, become very heavy by Thursday morning, possibly mixing with or changing to rain, freezing rain, sleet or snow late on Thursday morning in Northeastern New Jersey, New York City, and Long Island, then change back to snow on Thursday evening, with snow continuing until around 1 am to 3 am on Friday morning.  Total accumulations in areas that receive all snow should be 12-18 inches with localized amounts of 18-24 inches possible.  In areas that mix with or change to sleet, freezing rain, or rain, total accumulations will be dependent upon how much mixing takes place and this won’t be known until we get a little closer in time to the storm. 

Winds will also be a problem with this storm from Northern Virginia northward through New England as winds could gust over 40 mph. 

Also, headlines will be made with the freezing rain in the Deep South.  I am most concerned about the area of Northwestern South Carolina, and possibly into Central North Carolina.  Areas there are likely to receive more than one inch of freezing rain and the trees in those areas simply won’t be able to handle that much freezing rain, so many will fall on power lines and homes, causing widespread power outages that are likely to last for days or even a week or more.  This could very well be a worse situation than was seen last week in Southeastern Pennsylvania.  This storm will most likely be making National news headlines on Wednesday and Thursday in those areas, and possibly areas further to the north as well, into New England with the heavy snow and strong winds.

Sunrise today.