Saturday, February 1st, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

We will have a warmer couple of days this weekend, with highs reaching the low 40’s today and the mid to upper 40’s tomorrow.  There will be a chance of a shower tomorrow that could mix with sleet at night as the cold front passes through during the Super Bowl.  Then on Monday we will have a chance of 1-3 inches of snow for Northern New Jersey and Southeastern New York, with lower amounts in northern sections of our region and higher amounts in southern regions.  From Rt. 78 south 3-6 inches of snow will fall with the lower amounts near Rt. 78 and the highest amounts near Atlantic City.  This storm was a surprise and is resulting from a piece of the energy that was supposed to produce the ultra big storm on Wednesday breaking out ahead of the second piece of energy.  These two pieces were supposed to combine on Tuesday and Wednesday to produce the major snowstorm but now we will be looking at two moderate events instead.  We may just miss the first one on Monday in Northern New Jersey and Southeastern New York, with the main effects for Southern New Jersey, but the second one won’t miss us.  However, the second storm may feature more in the way of ice.  I said last night that my gut instinct was that this storm could trend colder and snowier and it definitely did that last night on the models.  Right now it looks as if the storm will start out as snow on Tuesday night and possibly mix with or change to sleet and freezing rain, then possibly to light rain, and then back to light snow before ending on Wednesday night.  A significant accumulation of snow and ice is likely with this storm, but likely not the massive amounts that it looked like earlier this week for the reasons I already mentioned.  Then it will get cold again toward the end of next week just in time for another strong storm to develop along the Gulf Cost and head in our direction.  Right now it looks as if this storm has the potential to become quite significant, possibly turning into a powerful Nor'easter, IF the two pieces come together and don’t stay separate as they are doing for this first one.  Honestly though, I have been saying for many days that I was more focused on this second one for being a potentially very strong storm.  And last night I said that if you wanted a blizzard, this one was likely your best chance.  There apparently was good reason for that, as this morning’s run of the European model produced a major snow storm for North Carolina and Virginia next Sunday, and an all-out blizzard next Sunday night for Coastal Virginia, Eastern Maryland, Delaware, Southeastern New Jersey, the eastern 2/3rds of Long Island, Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts.  Honestly though I just saw the ensemble mean and it is further west with all of these areas, indicating the very real possibility that this area could encompass our entire region.  However, please everyone, I urge you not to go crazy with what I am saying here.  I am merely expressing to you the potential as the model sees it.  The potential is definitely there for a major storm next Sunday, possibly even a blizzard, but just because there is potential does NOT mean it will happen.  ALL of the pieces would have to come together to make this potential be realized.  Those pieces may or may not come together, so don’t get too excited yet.  The storm will likely give us at least some snow; however, it is always possible the main effects could miss us to the east even if it does develop into something major.  So, be sure to check back for updates.  After this storm passes it will likely get very cold again, with the chances for another big storm the middle of the following week and again for the following weekend.