Sunday, February 9th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

Talk about the pieces not coming together today, well they didn't.  There were a whole bunch of disturbances moving around today and they simply could not combine to form one bigger storm.  So, we will be faced with light snow developing late this afternoon between about 4 pm and 5 pm and ending tonight between around 9 pm and 11 pm, with 1 to possibly as much as 2 inches of accumulation in some places.

Moving forward, it will get quite cold on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, with the low dropping to the low to mid single digits on Tuesday morning and around zero on Wednesday morning, with some areas possibly getting below zero if it remains clear in the morning.  Both Tuesday and Wednesday the high temperatures will be in the low 20’s.

The next storm to watch will be developing along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  This storm will be bringing snow and ice to areas of the Southeastern United States from Northern Louisiana, to Northern Mississippi, Northern Alabama, Northern Georgia, Northwestern South Carolina, and all of North Carolina on Tuesday.  The snow and ice will continue into Wednesday from Northeast Georgia into Northern and Western South Carolina (excluding coastal areas), and North Carolina (excluding coastal areas).  Areas of Northwestern South Carolina and the Western half of North Carolina will probably be making the headlines come Wednesday as several inches of snow there on Tuesday will be followed by some tremendous freezing rain, much as was seen in Southeastern Pennsylvania this past week; however In the Carolinas, the situation is likely to be even worse, as the trees are not designed to handle such events as well that far to the south, so many are likely to break and fall on power lines and homes. The situation in Northwestern South Carolina and Western North Carolina is looking quite ominous at this point. 

The storm will be strengthening as it moves along the Gulf Coast on Wednesday afternoon, reaching a point near Panama City, Florida by Wednesday afternoon.  It will then start making its turn to the north, cutting across Southern Georgia on Wednesday evening, with heavy freezing rain and sleet continuing in Northwestern South Carolina and Western North Carolina, with heavy snow possible in the Appalachian Mountains in Northwestern North Carolina.  Snow will be moving into Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware by Wednesday afternoon, with heavy snow falling already on Wednesday morning in Southern Virginia, including coastal areas.

The storm will continue moving northeast on Wednesday night, reaching a point near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Wednesday night with freezing rain and snow continuing in Western North Carolina, heavy snow for Virginia (excluding Southeastern Virginia), heavy snow for Maryland (including Washington D.C. and Baltimore), Delaware, and into Southern New Jersey.  The snow will commence in Pennsylvania and the rest of New Jersey and the New York City area in the late afternoon or early evening on Wednesday, becoming heavy by late night.  The snow will change to rain for the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday night as the storm center passes very close to that location. 

On Thursday morning the storm center will be continuing to strengthen as it moves north, reaching a point about 50 miles off the Delmarva Peninsula by Thursday morning.  Early on Thursday morning the snow may change to rain south of a line from about just north of Trenton to New York City, and possibly on Long Island.  Areas to the north of that line will be receiving heavy snow and winds gusting to around 30 mph.  The heavy snow should be falling throughout most of New York State and New England by that point, down through Northern New Jersey, Pennsylvania, excluding possibly extreme Southeastern Pennsylvania near Philadelphia, back through the Baltimore and Washington D.C. area and Maryland (excluding southeastern sections), Virginia (excluding southeastern sections), the Delmarva Peninsula will be rain, then the Western half of North Carolina should change back over to snow before ending there. 

On Thursday afternoon the storm center will be located about 100 miles off the New Jersey Coast with heavy snow falling throughout Northern New England (with rain falling over Southeastern New England, heavy snow over Northern New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania (excluding areas around Philadelphia which will be rain), the New York City area and immediate suburbs including Long Island may very well be rain at this point however just inland a few miles it will likely still be snow.  Lighter snow should still be falling further to the south toward Washington D.C., Baltimore, most of Virginia (excluding Southeastern sections, and the Western half of North Carolina through Thursday morning. 

The storm should then be centered about 50 miles Southeast of Cape Cod by Thursday night, with light snow finally ending in Western North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, but continuing into the night for New England, excluding southeastern sections where it will be rain. 

Total snow and ice accumulations in Northwestern South Carolina and Western North Carolina should be 1-3 inches of snow with up to an inch of ice (this would cause some serious problems in those areas).  With snow amounts in the areas from North Carolina northward that receive all snow being in the 6-18 inch range. 

Right now it appears that Northern New Jersey would receive anywhere from as little as few inches within a few miles of New York City, to as much as a foot in far Northwestern New Jersey. 

A few things....  One is that the track of this storm will likely fluctuate slightly on future runs, leading to slight changes in snow and ice amounts in either direction.  For those who are currently on the dividing line this could mean the difference  between a severe ice storm in the south and rain, and those in the north this would mean the difference between a few inches of snow and 12-18 inches of snow.  In addition, it is entirely possible that this storm could strengthen more on future runs, leading to stronger winds, and potentially opening the door to near-blizzard, or possibly even blizzard conditions developing in areas of the Northeast, so please check back for updates and tell all of your family, friends, neighbors, relatives, and unknown people you have never met before about this blog.   Thank you.

Oh yeah, and after this storm passes there will be a chance of more snow next weekend, and that one could also be significant in the Northern New Jersey and New York City area.

Then, finally, we may get a break with some warm weather toward the end of next week.  Maybe.