Wednesday, February 5th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

Today we will have snow, sleet, and freezing rain, heavy at times this morning, becoming lighter this afternoon and lingering until around 7 pm tonight before ending, possibly changing to rain in far southern and southeastern sections of Northern New Jersey late this morning into early this afternoon.  Total accumulations should be 4-10 inches from south to north with the highest amounts in far Northern Sussex County and in Orange County, New York. 

The next storm to watch will be for this weekend.  There are still many questions as to how this storm will develop.  There is a good chance of a least some snow on Saturday and Sunday, with a higher likelihood of more significant snow on Sunday, and especially Sunday night.

 

At the moment the models are NOT showing any major storms for this weekend.  However, my concern is that the piece of energy responsible for producing this potential storm is still over the open water of the Pacific Ocean where there is very little data for the models.  Often the models see the potential for a big storm in the distant future when the piece of energy is over Siberia, then the models lose the storm when it goes off shore into the Pacific Ocean.  Then they sometimes bring these storms back when the piece of energy comes back on shore on the West Coast.  This piece of energy will be coming on shore on Thursday and we may not see this storm reappear on the models until as late as Friday.

 I will continue with the chance for snow this weekend.  The big question will be whether it is just light snow both days, with a few inches of accumulation possible between both days, or if there is a much more intense storm along the East Coast with massive snowfall amounts and high winds.  I think there is a good chance that this storm will reappear on the models and be significant, if not very significant, but only time will tell.  The timing for any major storm that would develop would be for Sunday into early Monday.   Please be sure to check back for updates on this potential.

Beyond this coming weekend’s potential storm, another strong storm is likely to develop toward the end of next week.  This storm may come out in two pieces, one for Wednesday and another for Friday, or it could be one larger storm that starts on Wednesday night and goes into Friday morning.  This storm would most likely start as snow, but could change to rain depending on the exact track that it takes. 

After the storm for the Wednesday through Friday morning period, another storm will be likely for the following Sunday into Monday morning, and this storm is likely to be snow. 

Please be sure to check back for updates on the possibility for snow this weekend.